Florida Staring Down The Barrel of Ian

[bobabode]

Cat 3 or 4 hurricane Ian headed up the west coast of Florida.

Take care. :(

[bobabode]

If you can get out of harm's way? Pack up your family/pets and haul ass. This one is going to swamp the Ft. Myers area with heavy storm surge. 8' - 12'?

[RickeyM]

They say it's within 2-mph of going to a CAT-5 storm. I'm hoping for the best for those who can't get out of Ian's way.

[finnbow]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1raqGXEAUuqQK?format=jpg&name=small

[Chicks]

Tread on us, please. Florida needs a new soci@lism-friendly slogan after Hurricane Ian

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/columns/2022/09/29/ian-desantis-seeks-help-biden-no-more-dont-tread-florida/10458601002/

The hypocrisy of today's "conservatives". :rolleyes:

[RickeyM]

I know the article is satire but Ron is playing nice for now. He's acting like a real governor but I'm sure it won't last. He can't help himself. Florida could sure use that 12M he spent shanghaiing immigrants in the coming weeks.

[Oerets]

I know the article is satire but Ron is playing nice for now. He's acting like a real governor but I'm sure it won't last. He can't help himself. Florida could sure use that 12M he spent shanghaiing immigrants in the coming weeks.

And the extra helping hands to do cleanup, repairs...:D

[Chicks]

http://politicalchat.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=4049&stc=1&d=1664491501

[Chicks]

Thoughts and prayers!

http://www.politicalchat.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=4050&d=1664561979
4050

[Rajoo]

My message to DeSantis:

Eff Florida, Eff Floridians and Fuck you too DeSantis.
Too bad the storm did not split the state in two.

A very close friend lives in N. Palm Beach on the inter coastal waterway and they used to get incensed by the Trumpers campaigning for T-2020 from their boats using magaphones at all hours of the evening late into the night. The procession of boats was an endless yelling nonsense to the people living on these waterways since most of them are liberals. Fuck those MAGAts too.

In the MAGA cesspool of Florida, Palm Beach county is an oasis for liberals. If you may recall, "hanging chad" was invented here. Our daughter was born there and if someone were to call her a Floridian, watch out. :D

[Pio1980]

At least, now DeSatan has a real job instead of grandstanding "owning the lib's" wasting Florida revenue best spent on public services like disaster relief.

[finnbow]

At least, now DeSatan has a real job instead of grandstanding "owning the lib's" wasting Florida revenue best spent on public services like disaster relief.

As a Congressman, DeSantis voted against aid for victims of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New York. Now, he's begging hat in hand for federal largess. Feckin' hypocrite.

[RickeyM]

The Deep State Did It!

https://www.mediaite.com/online/two-fmr-gop-candidates-say-deep-state-used-weather-manipulation-tech-to-drive-up-ians-strength-and-punish-desantis/

Oh sure, instead of ending the drought in the western states or putting out forest fires, lets get even with DeSantis by raining down death and destruction upon millions of Floridians.
It's bad enough that people strive to put such balderdash out there, there are QAnitwits that will believe it.

[Rajoo]

^^Deep state has moved on from Chem Trails to microchips in vaccine to now DARPA?

[finnbow]

What's really amazing is that Donald Trump, who claims to be worth $10 billion, hasn't done or said shit about the devastating hurricane that just struck his newly-adopted home state. OTOH, if he were to do something seemingly charitable (which he is no longer legally permitted to do in NY), you know for sure that it would be a grift.

[finnbow]

Florida Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott urged Senate leaders for money to rebuild state after Hurricane Ian. Then when the vote came, ⁦Scott voted against the funds and ⁦Rubio didn’t show up for the vote. Shameless hypocrites.

[Rajoo]

Give them a break. Rubio was at a Hurricane party and Scott thought the aid was for Puerto Rico.

[finnbow]

Give them a break. Rubio was at a Hurricane party and Scott thought the aid was for Puerto Rico.

And now I read that every single Florida Republican in Congress refused to vote for Hurricane Ian relief funds (while at the same time many lobbied for it as did DeSantis).

[Pio1980]

Hurricane Ian Showcases GOP’s Disaster Aid Hypocrisy
https://www.thedailybeast.com/hurricane-ian-showcases-gops-disaster-aid-hypocrisy?ref=scroll

[finnbow]

Hurricane Ian Showcases GOP’s Disaster Aid Hypocrisy
https://www.thedailybeast.com/hurricane-ian-showcases-gops-disaster-aid-hypocrisy?ref=scroll

My favorite Bible passage is the one where Jesus votes against disaster aid for his own followers and then goes on Twitter to blame Joe Biden for not getting anything done.

[donquixote99]

And now I read that every single Florida Republican in Congress refused to vote for Hurricane Ian relief funds (while at the same time many lobbied for it as did DeSantis).

They knew it would pass anyway, so they were free to be stupidly consistent with previous conservative "fuck your needs" votes.

[Rajoo]

Biden should do the bare minimum and say "ask your representatives why they voted no". But he won't, even though this is a golden opportunity to own the Repugnants.

And send brooms to DeSantis and say "clean up yourself".

People living in Martha's Vineyard should send DeSatan a truckload of brooms and say go f..k yourself.

[donquixote99]

Send paper towles.

[Rajoo]

Forgot about JT's Larry Bird imitation in PR.

[Pio1980]

DeSantis asked the feds for hurricane relief. But he’s long used their cash.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/03/desantis-federal-relief-cash-fund-priorities-00060020

[RickeyM]

After Ian, and now...

Alligators and snakes, oh my. (https://www.insider.com/florida-alligators-swarming-unlivable-homes-damaged-hurricane-ian-official-says-2022-10) :(

I guess mother nature's reclaiming her own.

All those nice pretty houses built right on the water's edge. All those dwellings built on barrier islands. So much development on fine loamy sand.

[Rajoo]

Sanibel island is not an island but a sand bar. Nature is reclaiming it.

[RickeyM]

Sanibel island is not an island but a sand bar. Nature is reclaiming it.
They allowed people to build on a sand bar?!?

https://www.sanibelisland.com/

[finnbow]

They allowed people to build on a sand bar?!?

https://www.sanibelisland.com/

All of the barrier islands on the East Coast are sand bars. Hell, Miami Beach is (mostly) a man-made sandbar made by dredging sand up from Biscayne Bay in the 1920's. Even worse than these sandbars are the places like Cape Coral that was basically oceanfront marsh that was drained by canals and left horrifically exposed to the elements. Here's a really good article about Florida coastline development in general and Cape Coral in particular.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/

[bobabode]

All of the barrier islands on the East Coast are sand bars. Hell, Miami Beach is (mostly) a man-made sandbar made by dredging sand up from Biscayne Bay in the 1920's. Even worse than these sandbars are the places like Cape Coral that was basically oceanfront marsh that was drained by canals and left horrifically exposed to the elements. Here's a really good article about Florida coastline development in general and Cape Coral in particular.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/

Meanwhile we bluestaters are obligated to funding rebuilding these peckerwood's castles built on sand while they talk smack with their hands out.

Florida is a lost cause with sea levels rising. Every 'King tide' has the ocean pouring out of manholes into the street. How the feck is that sustainable? smh

[finnbow]

Meanwhile we bluestaters are obligated to funding rebuilding these peckerwood's castles built on sand while they talk smack with their hands out.

Florida is a lost cause with sea levels rising. Every 'King tide' has the ocean pouring out of manholes into the street. How the feck is that sustainable? smh

The insurance companies are aware of the risk and price flood insurance accordingly in Florida, resulting in only ~20% of homeowners in Florida having flood insurance, leaving the rest of us to foot the bill for their climate catastrophes.

[Rajoo]

Meanwhile we bluestaters are obligated to funding rebuilding these peckerwood's castles built on sand while they talk smack with their hands out.

Florida is a lost cause with sea levels rising. Every 'King tide' has the ocean pouring out of manholes into the street. How the feck is that sustainable? smh

When we used to live in Florida, hurricanes were fun and two day party. I used to board all my windows, but later wised up and just boarded south and east facing windows, rest were taped. Yard needs to be cleared of flying objects and pool drained half way. Food, candles, two cases of beer and its party time, except when we lost power, then its worry time.

I doubt we could withstand a hurricane today considering the ferocity and the sustained damage

[RickeyM]

I saw a story about a resident who decided to ride out the storm. He carefully laid in stores of water, food and gas for his generator. He said he was ready for Ian. He was in fine shape, right up until the storm surge came and swept his house away.

[Pio1980]

Every time the GC gets hit, I'm reminded of my read of J. D. McDonald's Condominium.
https://www.amazon.com/Condominium-Novel-John-D-MacDonald-ebook/dp/B00E2RXHUW

[finnbow]

Hurricane Ian’s wrath made clear that Florida faces some of the most severe consequences of climate change anywhere in the country. But the state’s top elected leaders opposed the most significant climate legislation to pass Congress — laws to help fortify states against, and recover from, climate disasters, and confront their underlying cause: the burning of fossil fuels.

Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott voted against last year’s bipartisan infrastructure law, which devotes some $50 billion to help states better prepare for events like Ian, because they said it was wasteful. And in August, they joined every fellow Republican in the Senate to oppose a new climate law that invests $369 billion in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the largest such effort in the country’s history.

At the same time, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has blocked the state’s pension fund from taking climate change into account when making investment decisions, saying that politics should be absent from financial calculations.

In the aftermath of Ian, those leaders want federal help to rebuild their state — but don’t want to discuss the underlying problem that is making hurricanes more powerful and destructive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/climate/florida-republicans-climate-hurricane-ian.html

[whell]

In the aftermath of Ian, those leaders want federal help to rebuild their state — but don’t want to discuss the underlying problem that is making hurricanes more powerful and destructive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/climate/florida-republicans-climate-hurricane-ian.html

More nonsense about "climate change making hurricanes worse? The data doesn't support that. See here: http://www.politicalchat.org/showpost.php?p=411454&postcount=402

[finnbow]

More nonsense about "climate change making hurricanes worse? The data doesn't support that. See here: http://www.politicalchat.org/showpost.php?p=411454&postcount=402

Actually, it does. Sorry to confuse you with the facts. You really shouldn't rely on Trump, talk radio, Fox News or other wingnut news sources to help shape your views on climate change.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

[RickeyM]

Actually, it does. Sorry to confuse you with the facts. You really shouldn't rely on Trump, talk radio, Fox News or other wingnut news sources to help shape your views on climate change.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
Finn, some facts are confusing :confused:

https://media.makeameme.org/created/yall-got-some-59c5c6.jpg

[whell]

Actually, it does. Sorry to confuse you with the facts. You really shouldn't rely on Trump, talk radio, Fox News or other wingnut news sources to help shape your views on climate change.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

Ignore what I posted - likely because it undercuts your chosen narrative - post your own references that support your narrative, and then spike the football with a smarmy comment. Nice job! :rolleyes:

[finnbow]

Ignore what I posted - likely because it undercuts your chosen narrative - post your own references that support your narrative, and then spike the football with a smarmy comment. Nice job! :rolleyes:


It is not my narrative. It is that of the world scientific community while your narrative is that of talk radio.

[bobabode]

Ignore what I posted - likely because it undercuts your chosen narrative - post your own references that support your narrative, and then spike the football with a smarmy comment. Nice job! :rolleyes:

Low praise from the king of smarm on this forum. :rolleyes::p

[Rajoo]

Ignore what I posted - likely because it undercuts your chosen narrative - post your own references that support your narrative, and then spike the football with a smarmy comment. Nice job! :rolleyes:

Why do you insist on doubling down on nonsense.

We lived there for years and went through several hurricanes, David was the worst I think and each time it was party time. A hurricane party is a two day affair with beer, beer and more beer. Back then, beer was only 3.2%, so a case did not last very long.

Just look at the devastation from hurricanes in the past decade or so. Puerto Rico twice, now Florida, NY/NJ before that. Unimaginable damage and some places not even safe to live anymore. So screw your data, I can make a given set of data look good, bad, indifferent or downright scary.

[Rajoo]

How is this for data?

Yet Ian already is shaping up to be the deadliest storm to pound Florida since 1935. State authorities have documented 72 deaths thus far — slightly under Hurricane Irma’s toll in 2017, according to the National Hurricane Center. County sheriffs have reported dozens more, pushing the total to at least 103. That makes Ian more fatal than Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Of course DeSantis is downplaying the severity (deaths) of the storm, so of course the echo chamber is pushing out disinformation. Eventually the deaths will be counted anyway. Trump wanted Covid-19 to be another flu virus, DeSantis wants hurricane Ian to be just another tropical storm.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-florida-victims/

[RickeyM]

It is not my narrative. It is that of the world scientific community while your narrative is that of talk radio.
Cut the guy some slack. He's been led to believe by his news sources that anything not presented by them is part of a narrative. A Democratic, etc. etc, narrative. They do love to toss that word around.

[whell]

Why do you insist on doubling down on nonsense.

We lived there for years and went through several hurricanes, David was the worst I think and each time it was party time. A hurricane party is a two day affair with beer, beer and more beer. Back then, beer was only 3.2%, so a case did not last very long.

Just look at the devastation from hurricanes in the past decade or so. Puerto Rico twice, now Florida, NY/NJ before that. Unimaginable damage and some places not even safe to live anymore. So screw your data, I can make a given set of data look good, bad, indifferent or downright scary.

It's not "my data". It's NOAA's data.

You're making the case that your recent experiences - the last decade or so - are unique. They're not.

Hurricane Katrina was far and away the costliest storm in terms of damage to make landfall in the US. It may not have been the most powerful, however. That happened in 1935, when a Cat 5 storm hit the Florida Keys (https://www.weather.gov/media/tbw/paig/PresAmHurricane1935.pdf) around Labor Day that year. Katrina isn't the most powerful Atlantic storm on record, either. That "honor" belongs to a hurricane that hit Cuba in 1924.

In fact, the data on such storms shows that the most powerful were not recent. The 5 most powerful on the list (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones#North_A tlantic_Ocean) struck in 1955 or earlier.

Neither has the last 4 or 5 decades produced significantly greater named hurricanes that the historical average. The worst decades for frequency and severity of named storms rank 1 - 5 as follows:

1) 1941-1950
2) 1881-1890
3) 1891-1900
4) 1911-1920
5) 1871-1880

The most recent decade that made the top 10 was 2001-2010, which came in a #7, followed at # by 1851-1860.

While recent storms like Maria, Katrina and now Ian have been shattering to lives and economies, they are potentially amplified in their impact on you because they came to you live on CNN and other networks, and in your case, some personal experience. But in the context of history, they're not, unfortunately, unusual.

[Rajoo]

Again screw your data, I deal in facts.

Sydney posts wettest year on record — and it’s only October
More than 86 inches of rain have fallen in Sydney in just over nine months, with more rain set to come this week.

In an average year, Sydney’s most populous city receives 47.8 inches (1,213.4 mm) of rain.

And here in the Bay Area annual rainfall has been around 50% of normal. Last year a majority of the rainfall occurred with one major storm, so most of that water was lost due to run offs. Colorado river is now a trickle and Hoover dam is at 27% of capacity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/10/06/sydney-australia-record-rain-precipitation/

[GChief]

Here the sea level has risen 4" in the last 20yrs. Not due to erosion or "land sink". Tidal flooding of 200 yr old neighborhoods that only flooded during storms in now a daily reality.

[whell]

It is not my narrative. It is that of the world scientific community while your narrative is that of talk radio.

Not at all. I simply believe that folks like these make a better argument.

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-ten-most-important-climate-change-skeptics-2009-7

[donquixote99]

Found a data set of hurricanes by year that also includes a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) per year. Sort of a sum of the power of all storms large and small that year.* Taking 10 years at a time and summing these values to a decade ACE score seemed to me to be a good way to smooth out weather variability and get at the climate trend. Here's the data by decade when I do that:

Decade___sum ACE
1851-1860 493.4
1861-1870 539
1871-1880 849
1881-1890 885.6
1891-1900 1205.3
1901-1910 720.8
1911-1920 589.6
1921-1930 765.3
1931-1940 1016.2
1941-1950 887
1951-1960 958.1
1961-1970 1109.1
1971-1980 739.3
1981-1990 726.6
1991-2000 1094
2001-2010 1347
2011-2020 1235.2

2001-2010 is by far the largest ACE sum of any decade. 2011-2020 is #2. All three decades from 1991-2020 have ACE sums exceeding 1000. There had never before been even two decades in a row exceeding 1000. This seems to indicate a trend of increasing hurricane energy, as is expected from increased heat input.

* Definition of ACE: "A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence."

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

[GChief]

Found a data set of hurricanes by year that also includes a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) per year. Sort of a sum of the power of all storms large and small that year.* Taking 10 years at a time and summing these values to a decade ACE score seemed to me to be a good way to smooth out weather variability and get at the climate trend. Here's the data by decade when I do that:

Decade___sum ACE
1851-1860 493.4
1861-1870 539
1871-1880 849
1881-1890 885.6
1891-1900 1205.3
1901-1910 720.8
1911-1920 589.6
1921-1930 765.3
1931-1940 1016.2
1941-1950 887
1951-1960 958.1
1961-1970 1109.1
1971-1980 739.3
1981-1990 726.6
1991-2000 1094
2001-2010 1347
2011-2020 1235.2

2001-2010 is by far the largest ACE sum of any decade. 2011-2020 is #2. All three decades from 1991-2020 have ACE sums exceeding 1000. There had never before been even two decades in a row exceeding 1000. This seems to indicate a trend of increasing hurricane energy, as is expected from increased heat input.

* Definition of ACE: "A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence."

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic
Makes sense since the waters the hurricanes are traveling through are steadily increasing in temp. I was talking to a Sonar tech last Friday about the average thermoclines in the areas we operate in. The surface layers are warmer and deeper than when I was chasing Soviet boats off the east coast and in the Caribbean. FYI measurements are taken to 1500ft every 4 hours.

[RickeyM]

Found a data set of hurricanes by year that also includes a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) per year. Sort of a sum of the power of all storms large and small that year.* Taking 10 years at a time and summing these values to a decade ACE score seemed to me to be a good way to smooth out weather variability and get at the climate trend. Here's the data by decade when I do that:

Decade___sum ACE
1851-1860 493.4
1861-1870 539
1871-1880 849
1881-1890 885.6
1891-1900 1205.3
1901-1910 720.8
1911-1920 589.6
1921-1930 765.3
1931-1940 1016.2
1941-1950 887
1951-1960 958.1
1961-1970 1109.1
1971-1980 739.3
1981-1990 726.6
1991-2000 1094
2001-2010 1347
2011-2020 1235.2

2001-2010 is by far the largest ACE sum of any decade. 2011-2020 is #2. All three decades from 1991-2020 have ACE sums exceeding 1000. There had never before been even two decades in a row exceeding 1000. This seems to indicate a trend of increasing hurricane energy, as is expected from increased heat input.

* Definition of ACE: "A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence."

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic
You're wasting your time. You'll never get through to mister never give up-never surrender.

[donquixote99]

You're wasting your time. You'll never get through to mister never give up-never surrender.

My message was not addressed to the person you reference.

[Rajoo]

Trumpism is where you ignore facts, dismiss them as fake news, present a set of alternative 'facts' (which presumes that there are two sets of facts which is a conflict in itself), call fact finding a woke concept and threaten violence if one does not agree.

[Rajoo]

My message was not addressed to the person you reference.


I hereby acknowledge receipt of said message. :)