My anecdotal observations of the recovering economy:

[Mr. Lin]

A couple years ago, when things really started to go to hell, I chose from the beginning to remain optimistic. This was something we as a country had coming to us, but IMO there's almost no way we won't come back. Not like before perhaps (hopefully), but the doom and gloom messages of the media - well, I largely ignored them.

Until this summer I was a store manager in retail, working for a major corporate company that has over 1,300 stores nationwide. Like everyone, we were hurt by the recession. Stores closed (mine almost did too in fact), we stopped hiring part timers for the most part, and my supervisor came down on me (and everyone in our district) harder than ever before when it came to budgeting and saving money.

However... there were signs of dramatic change already in late summer 2009. According to corporate reports, sales suddenly and dramatically rose to higher than ever before during that time of the year, and stayed that way. I saw more and more business in my store. And I'm not talking about people buying the basic necessities, these were luxury purchases.

This continued, and things got even better before I left the company in August 2010. I networked with other store managers both within and out of our company, and they were observing and experiencing the same trends, by and large.

This reinforced my original thought when the economy really began to crumble. It's sort of crude but the message is clear: Americans can't not buy stuff (see :D). I say it like that half-jokingly, but I mean it. With whatever money they can scrape up, I think most Americans will, sooner or later, begin to consume at levels that will hopefully help bring back the economy.

More recently a family member who's a carpenter had some good news. For the past two years work for him has gone from more than he could handle to nothing at all. He's losing his house because of it. But as of today, he's booked work through March, and he thinks it'll soon go beyond that. The phone is constantly ringing again.

So these are only anecdotal observations, I know, but I just get a sense that things will, and are, gradually improving. I hope that this time we've learned our lessons.

I also wish we would start making things again, quality products, and become more exporters than the importers we are now, but of course that's another topic...

[merrylander]

Some things cannot be put off, frex during the past year we put on a new roof, replaced two patio doors that were suffering from dry rot, had the sidewalk raised and put new flooring and railings on the deck.

[d-ray657]

I appreciate your optimism, Mr. Lin. I draw from your discussion that you agree that we as Americans are used to consuming far too much. IMHO, that consumption hurts our economy when it is cheap, almost disposable goods from China and other low wage countries. (300 t0 400 dollars for a phone or an ipod with a useable life of one to three years.) I strongly believe that it is in the best interest of this country and the world to consume less and repair more. Live a simpler life.

My growing love for vintage stereo equipment reflects my belief, in that most of what I buy is used (even beyond audio), except for materials and parts. Someone on the AK side linked to this incredible place. (http://urbanore.com/)

Something that really helps curb the urge to consume is to quit watching television and listening to commercial radio. I have done so, and without the constant exposure to psychological manipulation, i.e. advertising, I find myself much less drawn to the latest fads.

That might be bad for the economy in the short run, but better in the long run?

Regards,

D-Ray

[BlueStreak]

Right. I work for a coffee manufacturer that supplies some of the worlds largest retailers. By January of 2009 we were barely running. Hours cut, people let go, it was getting very ugly. By summer of this year, we were getting much busier. Now we're working six days a week. My 401ks have both recovered their pre-recession levels and have started to surpass.

You do realize there are purely political reasons why few in the press is are reporting anything positive, don't you? It's not time to be optimistic, yet. But, I'm almost certain by this time next year, Fox at least, will be heralding the next "Golden Age". Even if the number haven't budged and inch.

Dave

[d-ray657]

Right. I work for a coffee manufacturer that supplies some of the worlds largest retailers. By January of 2009 we were barely running. Hours cut, people let go, it was getting very ugly. By summer of this year, we were getting much busier. Now we're working six days a week. My 401ks have both recovered their pre-recession levels and have started to surpass.

You do realize there are purely political reasons why few in the press is are reporting anything positive, don't you? It's not time to be optimistic, yet.

Dave

B-b-b-but Dave, if the press is liberal, wouldn't they be praising the results of the President and the Democratic Congress.:confused::rolleyes:

Regards,

D-Ray

[piece-itpete]

LPs in my local stores have gone waaaay up in price, with the more 'desirable' ones almost unobtainable.

Also the less expensive housing development near me has been building again. When the last street in the very expensive development starts building I'll firmly believe we're about done with the downturn.

Flip side, although business at work has been stable margins still leave much to be desired.

Pete

[whell]

B-b-b-but Dave, if the press is liberal, wouldn't they be praising the results of the President and the Democratic Congress.:confused::rolleyes:

Regards,

D-Ray

The press is what sells. Bad news sells. Good news...not so much.

[merrylander]

They are still building McMansions around here, no idea who's buying them, but they are still going up. Since they changed the zoning rules most are on one acre lots (if that big) with common septic tanks. Trouble with that is all the city slickers dump everything down the drain and no one is in charge of having the communal tank pumped. The McMansions up the road from us had some McSewage back up into their McBasements.

[piece-itpete]

Lmao! Rob for the win!

Pete

[d-ray657]

The press is what sells. Bad news sells. Good news...not so much.

Are you rejecting the GOP party line that the "Mainstream" press is liberal?

I'll agree with you that bad news sells, but one would have to also note that sensationalism sells. The tea party events got as much coverage this past year as the campus protests and sit-ins received in the late '60s early '70s. But, of course, no one at the tea party rallies got shot, gassed, or billy-clubbed - that is, unless you were protesting a tea party candidate, at which point you were subject to having your head stomped on.

It's undeniable, however, that the market for news has been fractured. As Ted Koppel recently noted (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/12/AR2010111202857.html?nav=hcmoduletmv), more and more people get their "news" from outlets designed to affirm their pre-conceptions. We also have those outlets with an obvious, but denied, (nee "Fair and Balanced") agenda.

Regards,

D-Ray

[piece-itpete]

Same with music and movies D, I wonder how it effects society in the long run.

You want to see liberal media? Wait till cutting time :D

Pete

[d-ray657]

Same with music and movies D, I wonder how it effects society in the long run.

You want to see liberal media? Wait till cutting time :D

Pete

I looked back at my post, and it contained a confusing grammatical error. My question about long term vs. short term effect didn't have to do with advertising but with a community-wide effort to seriously reduce consumption of new goods.

But yeah, with respect to movies, at least, product placement results in viewers seeing numerous subliminal advertising spots during a movie. I don't see that as healthy in the long run or the short run.

Regards,

D-Ray

[BlueStreak]

Locally, our economy continues to decline, however. We lost the Ford F-150 plant, 1,400 jobs,(Went to Michigan), an International Paper Mill, 1,100 jobs, and the Joint Forces Command may get shut down, another 600 civilian jobs or so. The latest is an announcement that Northrup Grumman intends to reduce it's local workforce by 30% which would represent a loss of 6,600 jobs. All of this in the last two years.

So much for being a right to work, red state keeping jobs in the area................

Dave

[piece-itpete]

No different here in a not right to work state Blue.

Pete

[d-ray657]

Locally, our economy continues to decline, however. We lost the Ford F-150 plant, 1,400 jobs,(Went to Michigan), an International Paper Mill, 1,100 jobs, and the Joint Forces Command may get shut down, another 600 civilian jobs or so. The latest is an announcement that Northrup Grumman intends to reduce it's local workforce by 30% which would represent a loss of 6,600 jobs. All of this in the last two years.

So much for being a right to work, red state keeping jobs in the area................

Dave

Not intending to be unsympathetic to your neighbors (or, for that matter, to you, because management will surely take advantage of high unemployment to manipulate existing employees), but I love the irony of seeing a plant leave a southern state to move to Michigan.

Regards,

D-Ray

[BlueStreak]

No different here in a not right to work state Blue.

Pete

My intent was to point out the irony in the fact that Republicans like to think such things only happen in blue states such as Ohio. Like the whole low red state taxes lie. This place is getting ridiculous. Auto registration fees DOUBLED this year, and now there is talk of an additional six cent per gallon state tax on gasoline. While my brother was here, we went out to dinner. His eyes bugged out when he saw the taxes we pay on "prepared meals". The crazy thing is that Virginia voters constantly bitch about the taxes and fees, vote GOP and then the Republicans they voted for raise their taxes---and nobody says a word. Like it's somehow okay when the GOP does it............:rolleyes:

Dave

[piece-itpete]

Come on Blue, the GOP is always right :D

Not intending to be unsympathetic to your neighbors (or, for that matter, to you, because management will surely take advantage of high unemployment to manipulate existing employees), but I love the irony of seeing a plant leave a southern state to move to Michigan.

Regards,

D-Ray

It's kinda great. I got a tour of a production line in Sedalia last year (how I found out about gooberburgers :)), the line was a very interesting mix between very old fashioned hard industry (actually making the product) and super high tech (the material feed, handling, and packaging system).

The same company has a plant in Mexico. The US plant is union. The Mexican is not.

The US plant has lower per unit cost :D

Pete

[d-ray657]

Come on Blue, the GOP is always right :D



It's kinda great. I got a tour of a production line in Sedalia last year (how I found out about gooberburgers :)), the line was a very interesting mix between very old fashioned hard industry (actually making the product) and super high tech (the material feed, handling, and packaging system).

The same company has a plant in Mexico. The US plant is union. The Mexican is not.

The US plant has lower per unit cost :D

Pete

Some people don't understand the quality of most union workers. Although unions in manufacturing plants have the reputation of keeping duds in the workplace, I know of many occasions where I have advised a union that a grievance would be a loser on the merits, and the union did not seek arbitration. In some cases, the use of a just cause provision prevents the company from firing an effective worker who has been fired because of irrational action by a supervisor. That protects the company from incurring the cost of training a new employee, and keeps a good worker in the work force.

In the building trades (construction), the workers are most often the product of a four or five year apprentice program which includes classroom instruction and on the job experience. The well-trained workers that the union delivers to the contractors allows the contractors to compete with lower wage, lesser trained non-union outfits.

Regards,

D-Ray

[BlueStreak]

Come on Blue, the GOP is always right :D



It's kinda great. I got a tour of a production line in Sedalia last year (how I found out about gooberburgers :)), the line was a very interesting mix between very old fashioned hard industry (actually making the product) and super high tech (the material feed, handling, and packaging system).

The same company has a plant in Mexico. The US plant is union. The Mexican is not.

The US plant has lower per unit cost :D

Pete

Way to go Ohio!

So, what is a "gooberburger", Pete?

Dave

[Mr. Lin]

Ok first of all I have to apologize for posting this thread and then completely disappearing for a couple days. I know it sometimes annoys me when other people do that.

Incidentally, I should point out that as of about a year and a half ago I've almost completely stopped watching or reading the news. Back when I was in school working on a history/German degree (about 8 years ago) all I did besides coursework was watch and read the news. I realized that it was making me a bitter, angry person. The constant talk about the sky falling and the U.S. being doomed just got so ridiculous, and that was just the tip of the iceberg.

As a matter of fact, that's why I didn't join this forum until just a few days ago. I thought I wouldn't have anything useful to say, but I guess that's not totally the case.j

I appreciate your optimism, Mr. Lin. I draw from your discussion that you agree that we as Americans are used to consuming far too much.

Yes absolutely, I've felt that way for a long time. I think our culture is sick and dysfunctional, and I'm not convinced we've learned our lessons this time. There goes the optimism! :)

MHO, that consumption hurts our economy when it is cheap, almost disposable goods from China and other low wage countries. (300 t0 400 dollars for a phone or an ipod with a useable life of one to three years.) I strongly believe that it is in the best interest of this country and the world to consume less and repair more. Live a simpler life.

I'm with you on that one too. We live in the throw-away culture.

My growing love for vintage stereo equipment reflects my belief, in that most of what I buy is used (even beyond audio), except for materials and parts. Someone on the AK side linked to this incredible place. (http://urbanore.com/)

OK I can't claim the same for myself because most of my equipment is fairly new and I refuse to use any kind of solder that doesn't have lead in it. :D

Something that really helps curb the urge to consume is to quit watching television and listening to commercial radio. I have done so, and without the constant exposure to psychological manipulation, i.e. advertising, I find myself much less drawn to the latest fads.

That might be bad for the economy in the short run, but better in the long run?

Regards,

D-Ray

Indeed, that's why I've pretty much stopped watching anything but movies, and I never really listened to the radio much. I suppose my biggest offense as regards consumption is that I purchase tons of music. And "tons" might not be much of an exaggeration if you put it all together. :eek:

[BlueStreak]

I haven't read a newspaper in years.

The only t.v. news I get is at work. And, unfortunately, it's FoxNews which nauseates me. Every lunch break is like a class on Public Manipulation--Goebbels 101. Wherein Glenn Beck reveals the Scapegoat of the Week during the daily installment of "30 Minutes Hate".

I gave up on conservative talk radio years ago. If I wanted to listen to an raging asshole, I would eat a pot full of refried beans and sauerkraut. Then what I'd hear wouldn't just sound full of shit, it would have the olfactory impact as well.

Having said that, I listen to the local PBS station nearly every day, and occasionally catch "The News Hour". I like it because it bores me to death. No sensationalism, no insane conspiracy theories, just present the information and move on to Sesame Street.

Dave

[merrylander]

I watch the Newshour for giggles, I can't help but laugh when Jim Lehrer announces the latest Republican gaffe with a completely straight face.

[piece-itpete]

I want to put in a good word for newspapers, at least major market ones. Reading the Sunday edition particularly practically cover to cover gives a variety, breadth and depth tv or talk shows can't match.

I'm going to be sad when they're gone :(

Pete

[d-ray657]

I want to put in a good word for newspapers, at least major market ones. Reading the Sunday edition particularly practically cover to cover gives a variety, breadth and depth tv or talk shows can't match.

I'm going to be sad when they're gone :(

Pete

That's one we can agree on Pete. I love reading the WAPO online, but the familiarity of your own paper in a medium that you can easily scan is a comfortable experience.

Regards,

D-Ray

[finnbow]

I'm fortunate to live in a city with daily delivery of a good newspaper. I read the WaPost pretty much cover-to-cover on a daily basis. When I travel to other cities, I can see why people bitch about the quality of newspapers. Unfortunately, most suck.

For example, just up the road, the Baltimore Sun sucks. Worse yet is the Washington Times (a Moonie paper - blech). Further down the list in gawd-awfullness is the USA Today (the only thing available at hotels when I'm on the road). What a pathetic excuse for a paper.

[d-ray657]

I'm fortunate to live in a city with daily delivery of a good newspaper. I read the WaPost pretty much cover-to-cover on a daily basis. When I travel to other cities, I can see why people bitch about the quality of newspapers. Unfortunately, most suck.

For example, just up the road, the Baltimore Sun sucks. Worse yet is the Washington Times (a Moonie paper - blech). Further down the list in gawd-awfullness is the USA Today (the only thing available at hotels when I'm on the road). What a pathetic excuse for a paper.

Dude, are you dissing McPaper? Before the explosion of statistical information on the net, my stats geek fantasy baseball friends and I would use McPaper because it had better stats than the local paper. For substantive issues, one could compare quality of the journalism to the nutritional value of Mickey D's fries.

Regards,

D-Ray

[Fast_Eddie]

Having said that, I listen to the local PBS station nearly every day, and occasionally catch "The News Hour". I like it because it bores me to death. No sensationalism, no insane conspiracy theories, just present the information and move on to Sesame Street.


I want to put in a good word for newspapers, at least major market ones. Reading the Sunday edition particularly practically cover to cover gives a variety, breadth and depth tv or talk shows can't match.

I'm going to be sad when they're gone :(


People, unfortunately, respond more to light than heat. For all its derision, "the media" in the U.S. is largely a free market creation and as such is responsive to the desire of its consumers. So while we hear everyone complain that there isn't enough "real news" or the coverage is biased, the reality is, they do not consume products that are what they say they want.

Good point about the News Hour. I always use it as an example. It's on in almost every market in the country, but rarely is it ever a threat for any real ratings.

If you haven't noticed, it's "sweeps". So your local news folks are throwing everything at their late news shows. We had a huge night here last night- biggest number in weeks. What did we run? An in depth expose of the economic situation? Nope. An "investigation" that "uncovered" that fire fighters were using a multi-million dollar mobile command center for sexual trysts.

Sometimes my job makes me feel dirty.

[piece-itpete]

I'm a bit lucky, Cleveland's Plain Dealer is pretty good. For a leftie rag :)

And say what you will about slant, I enjoy reading the WSJ occasionally.

Pete

[piece-itpete]

Eddie, last night local tv news ran 'what makes women sexy'.

Good thing too, I wasn't sure :p

Pete

[finnbow]

I'm a bit lucky, Cleveland's Plain Dealer is pretty good. For a leftie rag :)

And say what you will about slant, I enjoy reading the WSJ occasionally.

Pete

Me too. The Economist is very good as well, though not a newspaper. It beats the snot out of Time/Newsweek/USNews.

[Mr. Lin]

Oh I forgot about the News Hour. Jim Lehrer was my hero back when I actually did watch the news.

[BlueStreak]

I'm a bit lucky, Cleveland's Plain Dealer is pretty good. For a leftie rag :)

And say what you will about slant, I enjoy reading the WSJ occasionally.

Pete

I always liked the way N.E. Ohio newspapers have the "Business and Labor" section.

That's how it should be.

Dave

[d-ray657]

I always liked the way N.E. Ohio newspapers have the "Business and Labor" section.

That's how it should be.

Dave

Good Point!

Regards,

D-Ray