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whell
06-03-2011, 08:32 AM
The addition of fewer jobs than expected, plus an unexpected bump in new unemployment claims, pushes unemployment back up. It also signals what many are suggesting is the second dip of a "double - dip" recession.

Some of the slowdown can certainly be traced to Japan, and the earthquake's impact on their production. Some of my clients have been impacted by this, and one client (headquartered in Japan) has laid off most of their staff due to parts shortages.

However, I'd also suggest that our continued lack of commitment to any near term supply side domestic energy policy, and QE1 and 2, are also prompting this. Inflation due to high gas prices and the expansion of the money supply is becoming more evident. The fact that short term rates remain at or near zero is continuing to "degrease the skids", and keep much needed capital out of the market.

We need to change direction, and soon.

CarlV
06-03-2011, 10:17 AM
We need to change direction, and soon.

Yep, the compromises made to the GOP were foolish and Dem's should have stood ground. No doubt about it.
Nice to see Romney flapping away about everything except nothing for how he will fix it all besides preparing a nice batch of Romney-care waffles. :)


Carl

whell
06-03-2011, 10:42 AM
Yep, the compromises made to the GOP were foolish and Dem's should have stood ground. No doubt about it.
Nice to see Romney flapping away about everything except nothing for how he will fix it all besides preparing a nice batch of Romney-care waffles. :)


Carl

This response doesn't make sense to me. What do the lack of tax increases have to do with inflation? Or QE 1 an 2? Or domestic energy policy?

BlueStreak
06-03-2011, 10:45 AM
Everything is a signal of the "double dip", for those who WANT it to happen, for political reasons.

Dave

merrylander
06-03-2011, 12:21 PM
I guess we will just have to wait for the 2012 elections. If the GOP wins Wall Street and Friends will open the taps and jobs will appear. If the Dems win there will simply be more of that droning whine from the boredrooms of America while they sit around counting their ever increasing profits.

BlueStreak
06-03-2011, 12:30 PM
I guess we will just have to wait for the 2012 elections. If the GOP wins Wall Street and Friends will open the taps and jobs will appear. If the Dems win there will simply be more of that droning whine from the boredrooms of America while they sit around counting their ever increasing profits.

Oh, so I'm not the only one that's noticed?:D

Dave

piece-itpete
06-03-2011, 12:45 PM
Sadly, the Dems in Congress are wealthier than the GOP reps, and I thought the blue states wealthier than the red?

They didn't get the memo ;)

Pete

CarlV
06-03-2011, 01:14 PM
I have no answer to our stupidity of being oil dependent to the point of blood for oil and the short sightedness of dismantling what public transit we do have left and forcing people to drive in their cars, mostly solo, whell.
Sure does keep Exxon and them guys busy and rich though. Drill baby drill! :rolleyes:

We put 80 billion into GM and Chrysler at a cost of 14-16 billion creating 112.000 jobs and growing via the trickle up theory. Good paying jobs, more taxpayers paying taxes on good wages, everybody wins. So what do we do? we borrow and give an 81 billion extansion of Bush tax cuts that hasn't nor ever will do an effing thing to benefit our country. Could have put that into fixing our rusted out bridges and potholed freeways and made more good wage paying taxpayers and more trickle up. Get our crumbling infrastructure repaired too rather than as needed and having to borrow emergency funds.

We are a foolish lot.


Carl

whell
06-03-2011, 01:47 PM
Everything is a signal of the "double dip", for those who WANT it to happen, for political reasons.

Dave

I think some of the folks on the "left side" of the aisle are worried about it too. What's their agenda?

piece-itpete
06-03-2011, 02:02 PM
It's the anti-Kenyan wing behind it ;)

Pete

merrylander
06-03-2011, 02:48 PM
Sadly, the Dems in Congress are wealthier than the GOP reps, and I thought the blue states wealthier than the red?

They didn't get the memo ;)

Pete

WTF does that have to do with anything?

piece-itpete
06-03-2011, 02:49 PM
Rich people sabotaging Obama?

Pete

djv8ga
06-03-2011, 07:58 PM
.
3rd year with rising unemployment numbers and real life inflation. Good job Obama & Reed.

d-ray657
06-04-2011, 12:08 AM
Sadly, the Dems in Congress are wealthier than the GOP reps, and I thought the blue states wealthier than the red?

They didn't get the memo ;)

Pete

Pete, this is one of your favorite posts. Have you bothered to compare the policies they support? That would render your fascination with wealth of individual members of congress irrelevant.

Regards,

D-Ray

merrylander
06-04-2011, 07:32 AM
Watching Nightly Business Report last evening the commentators noted higher gas prices as one of the reasons for the drop, as well as all those public service employees that were terminated in May. So can we blame Exxon-Mobil and Chevron and all the GOP governors? Inquiring minds want to know.

Seriously large corporations and small businesses do not really 'create' jobs so much as they offer job 'churn'. Innovators are the real job creators and currently innovation is at a standstill. If you wonder why ask the bankers who would rather get 3% on Treasuries than loan money to innovators.

whell
06-04-2011, 08:31 AM
Seriously large corporations and small businesses do not really 'create' jobs so much as they offer job 'churn'. Innovators are the real job creators and currently innovation is at a standstill. If you wonder why ask the bankers who would rather get 3% on Treasuries than loan money to innovators.

You've nailed it here, though with many small businesses the opportunity to potentially grow is stifled by lack of capital / liquidity. But, frankly, the bankers are in an environment where it makes good business sense to invest their capital rather than loan it out. That may change when inflation takes hold, but the alternative scenario is that loan underwriting requirements might get even tighter in an inflationary economy.

A number of my clients have suggested that there are opportunities in the market right now they could exploit if they could only get their hands on some working capital at reasonable rates / terms.

whell
06-04-2011, 08:35 AM
So can we blame Exxon-Mobil and Chevron and all the GOP governors? Inquiring minds want to know.


Well, here in Michigan anyway, one of the key reasons for gasoline prices that are higher than the national average is that THE key pipeline that brings oil into the area - which is a Canadian pipeline by the way - is shut down for an indefinite length time for repairs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110603/wl_canada_afp/uscanadaoilenvironment

Also, the governor and the legislature just lowered the business tax and cut spending in an attempt to accelerate business / job growth . We'll see...

djv8ga
06-05-2011, 06:28 PM
But, frankly, the bankers are in an environment where it makes good business sense to invest their capital rather than loan it out.

Until the fed raises rates, the banks would be fools to loan a dime. Why take the risk and employ people to make and service loans when you can buy debt with wholesale money that is virtually free(?). What a scam.

d-ray657
06-05-2011, 09:37 PM
Until the fed raises rates, the banks would be fools to loan a dime. Why take the risk and employ people to make and service loans when you can buy debt with wholesale money that is virtually free(?). What a scam.

I'll agree with you that the banks have a pretty good scam going at the free money window.

Regards,

D-Ray

whell
06-06-2011, 08:45 AM
I'll agree with you that the banks have a pretty good scam going at the free money window.

Regards,

D-Ray

So, the Fed, in collusion with this Administration, is supporting a scam? Interesting take on the current fiscal policy.

piece-itpete
06-06-2011, 10:51 AM
Pete, this is one of your favorite posts. Have you bothered to compare the policies they support? That would render your fascination with wealth of individual members of congress irrelevant.

Regards,

D-Ray

It is :D

They SAY they support them. But I'm hearing here that 'big business' is intentionally surpressing the market to make Obama look bad. Perhaps a closer look at who big business really is is in order. The statement is valid.

And like they'd keep their profits down :rolleyes:

Well, here in Michigan anyway, one of the key reasons for gasoline prices that are higher than the national average is that THE key pipeline that brings oil into the area - which is a Canadian pipeline by the way - is shut down for an indefinite length time for repairs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110603/wl_canada_afp/uscanadaoilenvironment

Also, the governor and the legislature just lowered the business tax and cut spending in an attempt to accelerate business / job growth . We'll see...

Why are the Canadians colluding with American big business to make Obama lose in 2012? :p

Pete

merrylander
06-06-2011, 11:04 AM
Why are the Canadians colluding with American big business to make Obama lose in 2012? :p

Pete

It was not TransCanada that shut the line down.:p

d-ray657
06-06-2011, 03:17 PM
It is :D

They SAY they support them. But I'm hearing here that 'big business' is intentionally surpressing the market to make Obama look bad. Perhaps a closer look at who big business really is is in order. The statement is valid.

Pete

What congress critters from the Democratic party come to congress from big business? Who in the GOP. So far I haven't seen anything to validate your theory.

Regards,

D-Ray

piece-itpete
06-07-2011, 09:05 AM
The simple fact that the Dems in Congress have a greater per-capita net worth speaks volumes, unless it's inherent in the Democrat party that people aren't people...

I know, I know, they CARE more :rolleyes: But then I look at their actions in power. NAFTA, 'Bush' tax cuts, well they did carve out a little exemption for UAW golden health care packages...

Pete

BlueStreak
06-07-2011, 09:13 AM
The simple fact that the Dems in Congress have a greater per-capita net worth speaks volumes, unless it's inherent in the Democrat party that people aren't people...

I know, I know, they CARE more :rolleyes: But then I look at their actions in power. NAFTA, 'Bush' tax cuts, well they did carve out a little exemption for UAW golden health care packages...

Pete

So, when did you start bashing success, Pete? Maybe the difference is that the Dem party is full of successful business types and the GOP is full of miserable ne'er-do-wells who always blame others, (the government), for their personal ineptitude?:p

Dave

whell
06-07-2011, 10:53 AM
So, when did you start bashing success, Pete? Maybe the difference is that the Dem party is full of successful business types and the GOP is full of miserable ne'er-do-wells who always blame others, (the government), for their personal ineptitude?:p

Dave

Careful. The favorite donkey company right now, Government Motors, is headed by a Repub. :eek:

bhunter
06-08-2011, 01:55 PM
What congress critters from the Democratic party come to congress from big business? Who in the GOP. So far I haven't seen anything to validate your theory.

Regards,

D-Ray

Didn't "The Blue Book," created by democrats in order to help democrats avoid patronizing republican businesses, show that democrats supported Wall Street firms more than the republicans? I'd also argue that those coming to Congress without some business background fundamentally lack an important requisite for leadership in an ostensibly capitalist economy.

bhunter
06-08-2011, 02:11 PM
So, when did you start bashing success, Pete? Maybe the difference is that the Dem party is full of successful business types and the GOP is full of miserable ne'er-do-wells who always blame others, (the government), for their personal ineptitude?:p

Dave

What? you didn't get the memo: "It's all Bush's fault." The Democrat's entire platform seems to be blaming someone else for someone's failings. The evil business man, the racists, the haves, the polluters, the church, etc. The only thing they don't blame is themselves and their incessant whining and regulations. At some point regulations and laws and rules become worthless as motivators of behavior without a powerful tyrannical government. Once a government loses support of the governed, that government should be replaced with one more acceptable.

merrylander
06-08-2011, 02:13 PM
What? you didn't get the memo: "It's all Bush's fault." The Democrat's entire platform seems to be blaming someone else for someone's failings. The evil business man, the racists, the haves, the polluters, the church, etc. The only thing they don't blame is themselves and their incessant whining and regulations. At some point regulations and laws and rules become worthless as motivators of behavior without a powerful tyrannical government. Once a government loses support of the governed, that government should be replaced with one more acceptable.

AFAIK the polling stations will be open in 2012.:p

bhunter
06-08-2011, 02:17 PM
Careful. The favorite donkey company right now, Government Motors, is headed by a Repub. :eek:

The guy that floated the concept of an additional $1.00 per gallon tax on gasoline in order to promote the sales of smaller cars. We're at $4.00 a gallon and GMs vehicles still aren't selling? Perhaps, he ought take a look at his products.

merrylander
06-08-2011, 02:53 PM
The guy that floated the concept of an additional $1.00 per gallon tax on gasoline in order to promote the sales of smaller cars. We're at $4.00 a gallon and GMs vehicles still aren't selling? Perhaps, he ought take a look at his products.

Oh really?:p

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fmdc%2Fpublic%2Fp age%2F2_3022-autosales.html&ei=WdLvTZ2eE5CcgQeixIWVDw&usg=AFQjCNFmvqSjn2svAFpMgkf10Cj6mJyFUg

bhunter
06-08-2011, 07:18 PM
Oh really?:p

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fmdc%2Fpublic%2Fp age%2F2_3022-autosales.html&ei=WdLvTZ2eE5CcgQeixIWVDw&usg=AFQjCNFmvqSjn2svAFpMgkf10Cj6mJyFUg

Excellent charts! I was just repeating what he floated in an interview. Of course, he also said such a tax on petrol (love that term) would be political suicide. Interesting that Honda and Toyota have had such declines, but perhaps those that drive those brands feel no need to change in such economic times because of the presumed reliability of those makes.

flacaltenn
06-08-2011, 10:04 PM
The very recent Toyota/Honda declines (since April) are due largely to the quake and supply chain problems. An event that gonna make US autos look pretty good for at least a couple more months. The Big 5 market share graph(s) only add up to about 50%. That means that they are ALL losing ground to the rest of the field since 2001. But foreign sales for Ford and GM are making up a lot of that diff.

bhunter
06-09-2011, 05:14 AM
The very recent Toyota/Honda declines (since April) are due largely to the quake and supply chain problems. An event that gonna make US autos look pretty good for at least a couple more months. The Big 5 market share graph(s) only add up to about 50%. That means that they are ALL losing ground to the rest of the field since 2001. But foreign sales for Ford and GM are making up a lot of that diff.

Damn, I'm having a bad day. I can't see and I forgot entirely about the Japaneses earthquake and its effect on sales. This despite that I've seen the Nikon lens I want substantially increase in price which I knew was caused by the quake.

merrylander
06-09-2011, 07:14 AM
You guys have been watching to many Toyota commercials. Since my wife taught in Japan for a number of years she would set fire to it in the driveway if I was foolish enough to bring home a Japanese car. Just as well as our his and hers 2000 Impala LSs give excellent gas mileage and are trouble free even after 11 years. She blew the doors off a Jaguar with hers and I gave driving lessons to a young smartass in a Lexus 350 with mine. Probably why the police are using them.

djv8ga
07-10-2011, 06:39 PM
9.2% & climbing. Just figured I'd update this because I know you Obama droids won't.

BlueStreak
07-10-2011, 07:05 PM
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a sign of the coming apocalypse, proof that the bailouts didn't work, the second (third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh........) dip or whatever. Only Michelle Bachmann and Paul Ryan can call down legions of angels to save us now, praise be to His High Holiness Lord Beck and Saint Ronnie.

Whatever, Dude.

Dave

bhunter
07-11-2011, 02:31 AM
9.2% & climbing. Just figured I'd update this because I know you Obama droids won't.

I'd like to see the numbers that include those that are not actively seeking employment and the under employed. I suspect it is north of 20%. It will not get better until Obama and the concomitant uncertainty is out of office.

merrylander
07-11-2011, 06:49 AM
Oh please, if we wanted to hear more of that uncertainty BS we could simply subscribe to the Chamberpot of Commerce newsletter.

djv8ga
07-11-2011, 07:15 AM
I'd like to see the numbers that include those that are not actively seeking employment and the under employed. I suspect it is north of 20%. It will not get better until Obama and the concomitant uncertainty is out of office.
I've heard the actual # is right at 20%. It's easy math now that 1 out of 5 Americans aren't employed.
Wait till Obama Care taxes begin to take effect in 2012. :eek:

BlueStreak
07-11-2011, 08:57 AM
I'd like to see the numbers that include those that are not actively seeking employment and the under employed. I suspect it is north of 20%. It will not get better until Obama and the concomitant uncertainty is out of office.

Of course. Even if nothing at all changes once he's gone. Because it has nothing to do with "uncertainty". "Panic" is more like it.

Really? 20%? I just don't see it. Are 1 in 5 of the people you know out of work? Heck, even all of my peeps who live in Northeast Ohio are working, save one. My place of employment is going to 24/7 production sometime in the next few months. I have a new trainee following me around the plant. He was unemployed for three weeks before coming to us.

Maybe we just need to start looking around us to figure out what's going on rather than go by tainted numbers supplied by God-knows-who, and their fearmongering agenda?

Dave

piece-itpete
07-11-2011, 11:29 AM
The Feds?

Pete

bhunter
07-11-2011, 11:34 AM
Of course. Even if nothing at all changes once he's gone. Because it has nothing to do with "uncertainty". "Panic" is more like it.

Really? 20%? I just don't see it. Are 1 in 5 of the people you know out of work? Heck, even all of my peeps who live in Northeast Ohio are working, save one. My place of employment is going to 24/7 production sometime in the next few months. I have a new trainee following me around the plant. He was unemployed for three weeks before coming to us.

Maybe we just need to start looking around us to figure out what's going on rather than go by tainted numbers supplied by God-knows-who, and their fearmongering agenda?

Dave

The tainted number is the official unemployment rate brought to****us by the BLS. Remember what is included in that rate and what is excluded. Underemployment and people who have given up actively seeking employment are not in those numbers. These are only people who would like to work. Toss in all the free-loaders, particularly in SoCal, and you'll see rates much greater than 20%. Perhaps, it's SoCal, but I see a hell of a lot of people not working. The lack of commerce is even noticeable on our vaunted freeways.

bhunter
07-11-2011, 11:59 AM
Of course. Even if nothing at all changes once he's gone. Because it has nothing to do with "uncertainty". "Panic" is more like it.

Dave

Obamacare, Carbon Credit Tax Proposals and his EPA usurpation, favors to his union friends, demonizing corporations, demonizing the rich, his personal war in Libya, etc.. have clearly not had anything to do with increasing the uncertainty in this country. He's a wrecking ball of commerce and it will take years to undo the damage. Playing class warfare politics alone says a lot about Obama and the rest of the democrat cabal. Look at Obama's foreign policy, or lack thereof, and all you see is uncertainty. The randomness of which ME country's people he aided or failed to aid is irrational and haphazard at best. Why Libya and Egypt but not Iran or Syria? Absurd policies by an absurd CInC.

merrylander
07-11-2011, 12:13 PM
Obamacare, Carbon Credit Tax Proposals and his EPA usurpation, favors to his union friends, demonizing corporations, demonizing the rich, his personal war in Libya, etc.. have clearly not had anything to do with increasing the uncertainty in this country. He's a wrecking ball of commerce and it will take years to undo the damage. Playing class warfare politics alone says a lot about Obama and the rest of the democrat cabal. Look at Obama's foreign policy, or lack thereof, and all you see is uncertainty. The randomness of which ME country he aided or failed to aid is irrational and haphazard at best. Why Libya and Egypt but not Iran or Syria? Absurd policies by an absurd CInC.

We should aid Iran - are you nuts? BTW Maersk the shipping line has pulled out of Iran followed by other shipping lines so now they are isolated. As for demonizing corporations there was a neat article in the weekend WaPo by Sheila Bair that did a better job than Obama on corporations and Wall Street and she is a registered Republican. Any damage suffered by corporations was self inflicted. Favours to union friends? WHen his secretary of educations applauds teacher firing, some favour. Methinks you need new glasses and a better news source than FauxNews.:rolleyes:

piece-itpete
07-11-2011, 12:28 PM
To put in a word for bipartisan foreign policy, I can see Egypt because the feeling it was going to happen turned out to be correct. I'm uncertain we should be in Libya, particularly considering the absolute BS that was used to not being 'hostile', but in many ways we have to trust that someone in State knows whats actually going on. Something the left never gave Bush.

I do like the fact that Libya shows the hypocrisy of both the left here in the States, and in Europe. We've already shown that we aren't the evil the imams make us out to be, in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps in Egypt at least we garnered some goodwill, perhaps the Sauds have woken up a little. Scared the crap out of China too :)

I really think the GOP starting to hem and haw over Afghanistan for political reasons is a big mistake.

Pete

bhunter
07-11-2011, 01:57 PM
We should aid Iran - are you nuts? BTW Maersk the shipping line has pulled out of Iran followed by other shipping lines so now they are isolated. As for demonizing corporations there was a neat article in the weekend WaPo by Sheila Bair that did a better job than Obama on corporations and Wall Street and she is a registered Republican. Any damage suffered by corporations was self inflicted. Favours to union friends? WHen his secretary of educations applauds teacher firing, some favour. Methinks you need new glasses and a better news source than FauxNews.:rolleyes:

I was referring to the anti-government uprisings in those ME countrys. My news comes from the WSJ, SF Chronicle, some WaPo, The Economist, and assorted other rags I come across. Somewhat, ironically, my favorite paper is the left leaning NYT. Occasionally, I'll watch Fox, MSNBC, or CNN. I avoid CBS, NBC, and ABC. And yes, I probably need to have my eyes checked. I think I'm gradually having a more difficult time seeing things close up.

Dondilion
07-11-2011, 07:57 PM
I believe that emeging economies like China, India, Brazil and South Korea have put the brakes on job creation in America. This will not be changing for anytime soon.

djv8ga
07-11-2011, 08:36 PM
Really? 20%?
You're right, it's even worse...http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

BlueStreak
07-12-2011, 12:04 AM
I believe that emeging economies like China, India, Brazil and South Korea have put the brakes on job creation in America. This will not be changing for anytime soon.

Hmmmmmm......Me thinks you may have something there.

Dave

BlueStreak
07-12-2011, 12:08 AM
You're right, it's even worse...http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

What? "Shadow Government? Where do you find this shit? Next thing I know you'll pull out a chart showing the sharp rise in cannibalism among the vast armies of marauding homeless.

Good grief, you guys are so depressing.

Dave

bhunter
07-12-2011, 04:20 AM
What? "Shadow Government? Where do you find this shit? Next thing I know you'll pull out a chart showing the sharp rise in cannibalism among the vast armies of marauding homeless.

Good grief, you guys are so depressing.

Dave

There is no conspiracy, but there has been a continued and deliberate "massaging" of the methods in producing the BLS statistics over a 50 year period. Here's an interesting article describing the various changes over the years and under both parties:

http://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023

All of this is public knowledge that can also be fleshed out by going through official documents and sources. None of this was really hidden, only just not, shall we say, emphasized by the responsible parties.

Here's the current BLS numbers notice the U-6 rate:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Charles
07-16-2011, 01:52 PM
What? "Shadow Government? Where do you find this shit? Next thing I know you'll pull out a chart showing the sharp rise in cannibalism among the vast armies of marauding homeless.

Good grief, you guys are so depressing.

Dave

How about "Shitass Government"?

Can't we all agree on one thing?

Chas