Are Hybrids the savior of the auto industry

[Grumpy]

I think not. People will always demand a truck or whatever thats 3 times to large for their needs that has zero recharge time. Burn that oil like theres no tomorrow..

[wintermuted]

Agreed. People won't go green voluntarily unless it's a "no pain" situation.

That said, I think the technology should be persued. I also think that the current crop of hybrids is kind of half-baked transitionary technology and that if I was the sort of person looking at one (I'm not), I'd wait a couple of years and buy a full electric vehicle or one that only uses an internal combustion engine to charge the fuel cell.

[Brett A]

Will the current hybrid technology save the industry? I'm pretty sure not. As you point out Grumpy, too many Americans want to drive huge, inefficient hulks.

I think in the long range, transportation will be fueled by something other than oil (not even hybrid w/gas). But I don't think it will happen soon enough to affect the current situation for the auto industry. Now is the time for R&D which is a huge economic drain that the industry can't afford with its current income (losses).

I'm all for fuel efficiency, but not interested in hybrid at this point, because it's too new and I'm not sure they are any less impactful on the environment when you consider battery manufacture and disposal. I'd rather have a conventional gas powered car that gets 35-40 MPG which we've been able to make for decades now.

I think what will save the US auto industry is that it will continue to do what its doing and shrink to meet its new market share position.

[Combwork]

[QUOTE=Brett A;185]Will the current hybrid technology save the industry? I'm pretty sure not. As you point out Grumpy, too many Americans want to drive huge, inefficient hulks.

I think in the long range, transportation will be fueled by something other than oil (not even hybrid w/gas). But I don't think it will happen soon enough to affect the current situation for the auto industry. Now is the time for R&D which is a huge economic drain that the industry can't afford with its current income (losses).

OK, but there have been persistent rumors for decades that the major car makers have quietly done the R&D, then sat on the results until the time was right. Paranoia? Maybe. Seems sometimes the less people know the louder they shout but we live in interesting times. Can't afford with its current income (losses). I think now could be very much the right time. Your car manufacturers have got more government backing (taxpayers money) than ever before. Doesn't this give your government all the leverage it needs? How efficient could hybrid cars be if they went into real mass production? Refined oil is a great fuel. For the amount of energy you get from it it's light, dense, portable, doesn't have to be stored under pressure and until recently, very cheap. You guys have the same problem that we have; you used to be self sufficient in oil, but now have to import it. The future? Accepting that "too many Americans want to drive huge, inefficient hulks", President Obama made an interesting statement a few days ago. He expects that within the next five years, US car makers will be mass producing cars giving 150 mpg. Is this the answer? Instead of trying to prise you guys out of your "huge inefficient hulks", would it be possible to make them fuel efficient without taking the fun away?

[dmax99]

Not unyil the cost of fuel is over 4.00 a gallon.People aren't gonna give up their gas guzzlers until it's financially painful.

[hillbilly]

Gas was over 4 bucks a gallon and it didn't stop them. If gas gets high as 10 bucks a gallon, I'll still keep my 7 mpg Chevy 1 ton. Why go in dept for 40k or so to replace a truck thats 'paid for' when it's only needed part time to pull the stock trailer?

Thinking about electric cars, those won't do our family either. What? 100 miles on a charge, lol. Two kids here, one in highschool 20 miles from the gradeschool our other kid is in, and they both play ball for school. It is 30 miles one way to work so thats 60 miles each day, then after we run to pick up kids from ball practice from two different schools wich totals 40 more miles a day, then alot of our away games range from 30-60 miles away 'one direction'. That is A-LOT of driving and some days it's not hard to push the poor car 220 miles a day. If each kid has a game on the same night, I have to hop in the truck and take one or the other as one car can't be in two towns at the same time. 4 bucks a gallon was a bitch,even worse on days we had to use two automobiles, but we still stood behind our kids 100% on one income that pays very little. If we can do it, I'm quite sure other folks making much more money than us will not let 4 bucks a gallon slow them down.

[Ohighway]

Not unyil the cost of fuel is over 4.00 a gallon.People aren't gonna give up their gas guzzlers until it's financially painful.

..... or $5./gallon, or $10. / gallon.... or even more. The financial aspect will be the one thing that will really drive change. When it gets too painful to drive the SUV, then and only then will people search out more efficient transportation. And everyone's threshold of pain is different.

I do wish people would be a bit more patient with hybrid technology. I think it's basically a sound idea, just needs more time to develop and mature. Emission controls are a good thing, and work well these days. But if you remember the earlier versions..... they sucked. It all took some time....

[dmax99]

Maybe they need to come up with a diesel-electric setup like train locamotives to power the big vehicles.

[Bigerik]

Not the answer, but an answer. The Volt, in particular, seems very impressive. Sure, there will always be a need for other vehicles, but if we could convert half the fleet to hybrids, the effect would be huge.

Of course, we'd have to build a bunch more electrical plants...

[Ohighway]

Maybe they need to come up with a diesel-electric setup like train locamotives to power the big vehicles.

Probably not a bad idea. Diesels are efficient, and they're getting "cleaner" with the proper fuels and engine development, etc.

Maybe it's even time to re-visit the turbine engine? I know they didn't pan out for use as a straight substitute for a regular engine, but maybe if used in "hybrid" mode they could be an answer. They could be used in a more efficient RPM range, and could make use of a variety of fuels.

[hillbilly]

Not the answer, but an answer. The Volt, in particular, seems very impressive. Sure, there will always be a need for other vehicles, but if we could convert half the fleet to hybrids, the effect would be huge.

Of course, we'd have to build a bunch more electrical plants...



Yep, but what I can't help wonder about is just how much more will electricity rates skyrocket 'again'. Once they have folks by the balls needing juice to recharge, they can name their price calling it supply and demand same as gas. I don't trust 'em knowing our electric rates have already doubled in two years here, without electric cars. Whatever they do, we'll most likely end up taking it up the ass in either electric rates, or gas prices no matter what.

[Bigerik]

Actually, it shouldn't really effect electric rates too much. Could actually bring them down. Most charging will take place overnight in "off-peak" times, which will actually help by keeping a continuous usage of electricity.
If you check the electricity spot market prices, electricity is dirt cheap in the overnight periods.

[Ohighway]

I love it when "all electric" vehicles are touted as "zero emission" vehicles. Just because the vehicle itself isn't spewing emissions doesn't necessarily mean it's emission free, it just means the emissions are being created upstream, at the power plant. (Obviously that doesn't apply if the electricity is generated by hydroelectric or wind)

[Ohighway]

Actually, it shouldn't really effect electric rates too much.
If you check the electricity spot market prices, electricity is dirt cheap in the overnight periods.

Yeah for now, mostly because of lack of electricity useage during those periods. However, plug in a nation's worth of vehicles at night, and I'd expect those rates to skyrocket overnight.....

[Bigerik]

Yeah for now, mostly because of lack of electricity useage during those periods. However, plug in a nation's worth of vehicles at night, and I'd expect those rates to skyrocket overnight.....

Well, the electric grid is actually built for peaks of usage (figure industry going hard and everyone running their A/C units flat out in their homes). What makes things expensive is having these plants running flat out at those times, while idling at others. By actually running them more, believe it or not, costs come down.

Been working in the industry for years, and actually having a lot of electric vehicles, with time of use electricity pricing in place, will improve things a lot.

[Ohighway]

You work in the industry. I don't. So I'll take your word on it.

However I'd bet $--money--$ , even if actual operating costs, etc. came down, that heavily increased useage during off hours would result in higher costs to the end user.

[whoaru99]

I have to agree, supply and demand. It's hard to imagine that "juice" will not go up in cost as it becomes more in demand.

It's hell to pay to build a new power plant anywhere, afaik.

[Combwork]

I've been thinking about this for a while. What about a standard size battery pack that slides into a housing where the fuel tank would normally be. You go to the filling station, someone brings over a trolley, pulls out the old pack and slides in the new one. Changing packs shouldn't take longer than filling a fuel tank.

Long range zero emission driving. Standard size packs mean that as new designs with greater storage capacity are developed, the range between pack changes increases. Viable idea?

[Ozmoid]

Cultural and lifestyle changes will have to take place for full electrics to be effective any time soon - we will need to reduce our travel distances and speeds.

We need to make our lifestyle fit the available solution, and stop looking for solutions that fit our lifestyles - what would you do if your vehicles were taken away and replaced by horses? That 220 miles a day for work, school and ball games would be right out the window...

[hillbilly]

Cultural and lifestyle changes will have to take place for full electrics to be effective any time soon - we will need to reduce our travel distances and speeds.

We need to make our lifestyle fit the available solution, and stop looking for solutions that fit our lifestyles - what would you do if your vehicles were taken away and replaced by horses? **That 220 miles a day for work, school and ball games would be right out the window...**

Yes it would be out the window. The population would be forced to live in the city nearest them and leave their piece and quiet in the sticks. I'd remain where I am though, and breed our mares back before they get old so we'd still be able to work the soil for the garden if no fuel was avalible for tractors or tillers. I guess they could force me off my land if I was being carried by six to be burried where ever they were planting me. Same way with guns, they can have 'em once they pry 'em from my cold dead fingers. It'd also piss off alot of us akers if we couldn't drive hundreds of miles cross country to shoot the shit with each other while enjoying our tunes. We could still pull it off though, just harness my horses upto your old van, and head out about a month early :D

If they went back to horses, I'd expect the government to do the same, grounding even their own planes. May as well do it right, hey? ;)

[Combwork]

No electricity; listening to your tunes on a wind up phonograph while the missus cleans yer jeans with a washboard.....


Oh, give me a home, where the buffalo roam,
Where the deer and the antelope play,
Where seldom is heard a discouraging word,
And the skies are not cloudy all day.


Yeehaa

[hillbilly]

I think we could get by with one of these rigs .... if we had Gilligan to peddle for us. :D



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSJ0CeBYG0s

[merrylander]

They could work on the hydrogen fuel cell more, and also on a conversion kit for existing fuel injected engines.

[Grumpy]

I like the idea of Hydrogen powered cars but its a long way off not to mention whose footing the bill for converting gas stations to hydrogen ?

Before the masses could seriously consider one of these cars Hydrogen stations will need to be everywhere.

[merrylander]

There was talk a while ago about Shell putting in some hydrogen pumps, guess that went the way of the dodo bird.

[Charles]

Whatever happened to T. Boondoggles plan to convert the existing fleet to LNG?

I doubt that it is a long term answer, but it does look like a short term fix which could actually be implemented without destroying the economy.

Now I may be wrong, and Boondoggle may be wrong, but I'll give him credit for one thing...at least he had a plan.

Years ago, I was watching Forbes on the stooge box. He was evaluating Regan's economic policy, which he said wouldn't work. He pointed out, "That to square a circle, you have to hammer on all four sides. Regan is not hammering on all four sides."

Well, we're sure as hell not hammering on all four sides of the energy problem, are we?

Chas

[merrylander]

Sitting on 4.5 acres Vestas coulld stick one of their big wind turbines in the backyard and run it through my meter any time they want. It would probably zero our electric bill and piss off the neighbors, sort of two birds with one stone.

[Combwork]

I like the idea of Hydrogen powered cars but its a long way off not to mention whose footing the bill for converting gas stations to hydrogen ?

Before the masses could seriously consider one of these cars Hydrogen stations will need to be everywhere.


Not sure about that. In the U.K. LPG was introduced with a much lower taxation rate than petrol or diesel. Result was a number of fleet operators plus a few privates paid the price and had their cars converted. This created demand; the result was fuel stations started to add LPG pumps. It kind of died the death when the government raised the tax level on LPG but the principle holds. Make the cars, keep the taxation rate low, go for mass production and the market will supply the fuel.

[Combwork]

Probably not a bad idea. Diesels are efficient, and they're getting "cleaner" with the proper fuels and engine development, etc.

Maybe it's even time to re-visit the turbine engine? I know they didn't pan out for use as a straight substitute for a regular engine, but maybe if used in "hybrid" mode they could be an answer. They could be used in a more efficient RPM range, and could make use of a variety of fuels.

Absolutely. Rover (UK) had experimental gas turbine cars in the 1950's. They were reliable enough to put a small number out for road testing plus as you say, they could run on virtually any liquid fuel. Problem was they were very inefficient; best mpg was about half that of petrol. They kept on with research until the early 1970's (the P6 was designed with an oversize engine bay so it could take a gas turbine engine) but they couldn't crack the problem with fuel efficiency.

The idea of a hybrid running at most efficient turbine rpm driving a generator is interesting. But there would be the complexity of a three stage drive train instead of just one.

[SAE2922]

I like the idea of Hydrogen powered cars but its a long way off not to mention whose footing the bill for converting gas stations to hydrogen ?

Before the masses could seriously consider one of these cars Hydrogen stations will need to be everywhere.

Not sure about that. In the U.K. LPG was introduced with a much lower taxation rate than petrol or diesel. Result was a number of fleet operators plus a few privates paid the price and had their cars converted. This created demand; the result was fuel stations started to add LPG pumps. It kind of died the death when the government raised the tax level on LPG but the principle holds. Make the cars, keep the taxation rate low, go for mass production and the market will supply the fuel.

Combwork,

I see that you are talking about LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas - "Propane") in the U.K. The building of a nationwide array of hydrogen fuel stations in the United States would have to be straight from the beginning. Converting a gasoline fuel station to handle hydrogen would entail a complete top-to-bottom rebuild of the fuel handling equipment. Not cheap by any means.

In sheer number of square miles, the United States is almost as big as the whole of Europe ( ~ 3.8 million to ~ 3.9 million square miles, respectively) with less that half the population (~ 306 million to ~ 730 million).

Nationwide, there is only a literal handful of these, "Gee, look as us, we have a hydrogen fuel station in our metropolitan area and we sure are GREEN", fueling stations. Typically, the stations are found in massively populated areas such as Los Angeles, etc.

Yawn. So what. The detractors will say that we (America), as a GREEN nation, must begin somewhere. I'm just guessing that only a few dozen or so nation-wide hydrogen stations are in service today for the masses. With America's low cost gas at the pump, the puny, dangerous hybrid put-put cars that hardly anybody wants to purchase at such high prices (think the be-all-to-end-all Chevrolet Volt electric hybrid (whatever) at a projected cost of at least $40,000), and the oil companies will not fund an esoteric Hydrogen Manhattan Project to supply, deliver and sell the newly required GREEN fuel on a nationwide basis.

Run gasoline up to the $6-8 a gallon range (or higher) at the pump to stay and not fluctuate downward, then America's car buying public may slowly turn a fond eye to the gasoline hybrids. Hybrid battery technology still needs to improve and bring the replacement cost down.

With our present refining infrastructure, going with a clean-burning diesel technology may be the way to go instead of gas-hybrid technology. Turbo-charging small displacement diesel engines can easily approach the 40-50 mpg range (or better) TODAY. If you are going to have to go to a small crackerbox-size car due to ultra-high fuel prices, why not leverage the present fuel station infrastructure and go diesel. You can approach hybrid miles per gallon without worrying about finding a plug-in electrical outlet on the road away from home to recharge or panic at the thought of paying ~$6-8,000 for a replacement set of new batteries in a few years.

Besides, hydrogen typically consumes more energy to produce than the energy that is derived from it. When we ramp up the massive production machinery to create hydrogen to fuel several million "riding lawn mowers with windshields", where will we get the energy to generate the much needed extra electricity? I sure don't know.

The government won't let domestic energy companies dig, drill or prospect where the energy can be found. God forbid that a snail darter, yellow-cheeked warbler, spotted owl or a gimp-legged slumbago worm is disturbed. "Frack no, don't drill there, 44 sea otters went to crustacean heaven in the oil spill of '69"! Just where will we get the energy?

There is absolutely no way that the American oil companies are going to freely and easily put up the billions of U.S.A. dollars to fund the massive infrastructure restructuring that would be required to service an American nationwide fleet of hydrogen-powered "golf carts with roll-up windows and air conditioning".

[Combwork]

[QUOTE=SAE2922;1012]Combwork,

I see that you are talking about LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas - "Propane") in the U.K. The building of a nationwide array of hydrogen fuel stations in the United States would have to be straight from the beginning. Converting a gasoline fuel station to handle hydrogen would entail a complete top-to-bottom rebuild of the fuel handling equipment. Not cheap by any means.

What some of the fuel stations have done here is add a single LPG pump to the existing petrol and diesel pumps. LPG is still pressurized, but nothing like as much as liquid hydrogen.

With our present refining infrastructure, going with a clean-burning diesel technology may be the way to go instead of gas-hybrid technology. Turbo-charging small displacement diesel engines can easily approach the 40-50 mpg range (or better) TODAY.

We're ahead of you on that one; a good example is the Fiat Multipla. 6 seat, aircon, all the bells and whistles. Urban cycle 50 mpg, long distance 55 mpg from a 1.9 litre turbocharged diesel. Even a 15 year old 2.5 litre Citroen turbo Diesel Estate gets around 40 mpg. The Citroen BX (1.7 turbo diesel) is quite happy to run on straight vegetable oil; really does bring driving costs down.

Oh well, maybe I'll get my license back but I'll not hold my breath........

[Grumpy]

The US is well behind the UK in the diesel department but you have to remember your comparing a US gal to the rest of the world.

[merrylander]

Combwork,

<snip>

Besides, hydrogen typically consumes more energy to produce than the energy that is derived from it. When we ramp up the massive production machinery to create hydrogen to fuel several million "riding lawn mowers with windshields", where will we get the energy to generate the much needed extra electricity? I sure don't know.

The government won't let domestic energy companies dig, drill or prospect where the energy can be found. God forbid that a snail darter, yellow-cheeked warbler, spotted owl or a gimp-legged slumbago worm is disturbed. "Frack no, don't drill there, 44 sea otters went to crustacean heaven in the oil spill of '69"! Just where will we get the energy?

There is absolutely no way that the American oil companies are going to freely and easily put up the billions of U.S.A. dollars to fund the massive infrastructure restructuring that would be required to service an American nationwide fleet of hydrogen-powered "golf carts with roll-up windows and air conditioning".


Perhaps if the domestic oil companies were to drill in all the leases they presently hold they could avoid the National Parks? The numbers for these unused leases are rather large.

As to the golf cart comparison I guess you have never seen a hydrogen powered vehicle. BTW we do have a golf cart, great way to get around the property, especially considering the 50 foot difference in levels.:D

[Combwork]

Quote Merrylander:

"Besides, hydrogen typically consumes more energy to produce than the energy that is derived from it. When we ramp up the massive production machinery to create hydrogen to fuel several million "riding lawn mowers with windshields", where will we get the energy to generate the much needed extra electricity? I sure don't know"

As I understand it, power stations either have to run 24/7 or not at all. Could the 'surplus' electricity generated at night be used for large scale electrolysis; hydrogen from water? That assumes you want hydrogen; could a gas powered car be adapted to run on hydrogen? The great advantage of LPG is that most petrol engines can be adapted fairly easily and it's a switchable adaptation; you carry petrol and LPG, using whatever suits. This gets round the problem of LPG not always being available.

Quote Grumpy:

The US is well behind the UK in the diesel department but you have to remember your comparing a US gal to the rest of the world.

That's true; I'd forgotten that. I think it's a 7 to 8 ratio. Using the British pint, US gallon contains 7 pints; UK contains 8. Going back to the point made by SA2922, if you're talking about 50+mpg off a US gallon in a standard size car, you're way ahead of us.

[merrylander]

For some unknown reason the US uses the Queen Charlotte system of liquid measure.

[Grumpy]

Another thing to consider is what MPH is the rest of the world using to test MPG. Up until a year or so ago we tested at 55 with no AC on and very slow starts. Hence the lower MP ratings of newer vehicles compared to those of old.

[Combwork]

Another thing to consider is what MPH is the rest of the world using to test MPG. Up until a year or so ago we tested at 55 with no AC on and very slow starts. Hence the lower MP ratings of newer vehicles compared to those of old.

This site gives comparison figures between manufacturers tests and 'real life' driving. http://www.green-car-guide.com/news/official-mpg-v-real-life-mpg.htm It's a UK site so the difference between US and UK gallon has to be allowed for. While I was checking I found the US gallon is 1/5th smaller than the UK gallon, not 1/8th.
For some unknown reason the US uses the Queen Charlotte system of liquid measure. (Merrylander) OK, let me get my head round this one. The U.S.A. who fought a long and bloody battle to kick England's king back over the water adopted a measuring system named after the wife of George 3rd. Meanwhile, I was going to be smart and give the origin of the Imperial Gallon but gave up when I found this 20 minims = 1 fluid scruple. WTF? That's straight out of Harry Potter.

[merrylander]

Beats me. BTW I was not the one comparing hydrogen powered vehicles to golf carts.

[Combwork]

Beats me. BTW I was not the one comparing hydrogen powered vehicles to golf carts.


Sorry; hand to brain coordination isn't always my thing.:D

[merrylander]

Sorry; hand to brain coordination isn't always my thing.:D


You too? :D