Syria and Iran.

[piece-itpete]

Something's happening, I keep picking up little hints and rumblings about troop movements into the area on international news and folks in the armed services...

NATO or UN into Syria, NATO into Iran?

Pete

[beej]

Somthing's going on in the Gulf. Heavy-duty minesweeping ops which would speak to the Iran piece. NATO probably there.

Fighting has reached Damascus which pretty much tells me that Assad's support is crumbling with slowly increasing rapidity. I think it's pretty much a given that if Assad sees it beginning to slip away he will go postal on the general populace. I don't think that's going to be allowed to happen. Could be UN but more likely a NATO operation. This would require a heavy NATO presence in the Gulf to deter direct Iranian involvement in Syria.

My 2 cents.

[Boreas]

Something's happening, I keep picking up little hints and rumblings about troop movements into the area on international news and folks in the armed services...

NATO or UN into Syria, NATO into Iran?

Pete

What are you hearing, Pete.

The only thing I've heard in this regard concerns mine clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. That could be preparatory to military operations or simply for the safety of commercial (oil) shipping, notably from Iraq.

John

[piece-itpete]

I've got friends in the armed services being redeployed, Russia knuckling under the pressure, China shut-upped, unremembered things in France24 (comments not stories), and McLaughlin said we'll be fighting with Iran before the election.

This could all be brinkmanship. It's looking serious though.

Pete

[beej]

Is Kofi Annan still in Moscow, does anyone know?

[Boreas]

Is Kofi Annan still in Moscow, does anyone know?

Yes, or else he left earlier today. Apparently Russia has prepared a draft resolution calling for immediate implementation of the Annan Plan. Additionally, Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed optimism with regard to reaching an agreement in the Security Council.

My concern is that if Assad falls, as appears likely and as he should, the international community will have to move in there physically and micro-manage the transition. Doing anything else would certainly result in a country with a militant Islamist government, with strong al Qaeda and PFLP - General Command influence, sitting on Israel's eastern border. Israel would absolutely have to respond militarily to such an existential threat.

John

[beej]

And if Assad fails the power vacuum created will quite possibly turn into a blood bath. There is no good answer to any of this.

[Boreas]

Yes, or else he left earlier today. Apparently Russia has prepared a draft resolution calling for immediate implementation of the Annan Plan. Additionally, Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed optimism with regard to reaching an agreement in the Security Council.

My concern is that if Assad falls, as appears likely and as he should, the international community will have to move in there physically and micro-manage the transition. Doing anything else would certainly result in a country with a militant Islamist government, with strong al Qaeda and PFLP - General Command influence, sitting on Israel's eastern border. Israel would absolutely have to respond militarily to such an existential threat.

John

Another scenario just occurred to me.

1. We could let the almost inevitably extremist government form itself in the wake of Assad's departure.

2. We then organize a strong international force in the Gulf and maybe even in Iraq to contain Iran.

3. We "green light" Israel to take out Syria.

4. At the first sign of a response from Iran we take them on as well.

This is exactly the sort of plan that PNAC would cream their jeans over.

John

[piece-itpete]

I don't think 'we' (Needs America To Operate) dare let the chemical stockpiles fall into jihadist's hands.

Pete

[beej]

Another scenario just occurred to me.

1. We could let the almost inevitably extremist government form itself in the wake of Assad's departure.

2. We then organize a strong international force in the Gulf and maybe even in Iraq to contain Iran.

3. We "green light" Israel to take out Syria.

4. At the first sign of a response from Iran we take them on as well.

This is exactly the sort of plan that PNAC would cream their jeans over.

John

Perhaps, but somehow I just don't see all of that falling into place without some extremist element somewhere doing something boneheaded that turns the region into powder keg. With respect to 'green lighting' Israel there are other players in the region who may not see that as optimal.

[Boreas]

Perhaps, but somehow I just don't see all of that falling into place without some extremist element somewhere doing something boneheaded that turns the region into powder keg. With respect to 'green lighting' Israel there are other players in the region who may not see that as optimal.

Yes, but you seem to be assuming that these people earned any lessons from the Iraq and Afghanistan misadventures.

We can also discuss how the other players in the area, particular the secular regimes like Bahrain and Qatar, would feel about having a militant Islamic state in their midst. They might also like to see an Israel weakened by a prolonged conflict.

Plus the NeoCons want Iran's oil.

John

[bobabode]

Perhaps, but somehow I just don't see all of that falling into place without some extremist element somewhere doing something boneheaded that turns the region into powder keg. With respect to 'green lighting' Israel there are other players in the region who may not see that as optimal.

Turkey?

[piece-itpete]

Yeah, like Iraqs.

Pete

[beej]

John, is it your belief that this country has the stomach for another war? It is my belief that we do not. It would be one thing if there were something overt and big like the 9-11 attacks. As it stands, I don't see us doing anything large scale with the possible exception of carrier strikes and surface and submarine launched cruise missiles.

[beej]

Turkey?

For one, yes. For another Saudi Arabia. And to be honest, Russia is not going to like anything that involves combat operations in either Syria or Iran.

[piece-itpete]

Iran tries to close down the Strait of Hormuz and it's combat.

Pete

[beej]

Iran tries to close down the Strait of Hormuz and it's combat.

Pete

That would be a strategic blunder that I do not believe the Iranians, for all their bluster, are foolish enough to try. Quite soon I think we will see a USN show of force in that area that would give Lord Nelson a woody.

[preferred u]

Question is .....Will China loan us the money for another war ?

[piece-itpete]

beej I kinda agree, at least I hope so.

I suspect China will go along with us on this but sooner or later they are going to flex their (appreciable and growing) muscle.

Pete

[merrylander]

Considering that we are losing warriors to suicide at the rate of one a day we do not need another war.

[Boreas]

John, is it your belief that this country has the stomach for another war? It is my belief that we do not.

I don't think so either but, sadly, I no longer view that as an impediment. Apart from the NeoCons, Obama has revealed a certain bloodthirstiness that I find very alarming.

As it stands, I don't see us doing anything large scale with the possible exception of carrier strikes and surface and submarine launched cruise missiles.

I wouldn't like to see even that level of conflict. I'm pretty sure that would be enough to goad some of the crazier "non-state actors" into action so, in the final analysis, we'd be in a major conflict within a year, probably 6 months.

John

[piece-itpete]

Actually Obama's actions show that it's not the neocons, that it is the establishment, and the left used antiwar sentiment to advance its' electoral prospects.

Pete

[beej]

Obama has been aggressive in pursuing terrorists but I wouldn't really characterize it as 'bloodthirsty'. Al Quaeda declared war on the U.S. and has been suffering the consquences.

[merrylander]

Obama has been aggressive in pursuing terrorists but I wouldn't really characterize it as 'bloodthirsty'. Al Quaeda declared war on the U.S. and has been suffering the consquences.

Considering what I posted above and the sheer $$$ cost of these two damned wars I am not quite certain who exactly is "suffering the consequenses". We need to get out and leave the message, any more twin towers and we will turn the country into a glass lined parking lot. That would clean up the drug trade some as well. These savages are always yelling Allah Akbar but they seem to be quite happy with supplying the world with hard drugs. They are completely withot morals.

[beej]

Although I share the sentiment, I seriously doubt, no matter who is in the White House, that would ever happen.

[Boreas]

Obama has been aggressive in pursuing terrorists but I wouldn't really characterize it as 'bloodthirsty'. Al Quaeda declared war on the U.S. and has been suffering the consquences.

I was thinking more of his "kill list" and his willingness to take out a dozen or so civilians in order to get one "high ranking al Qaeda member.

John

[noonereal]

they seem to be quite happy with supplying the world with hard drugs. They are completely withot morals.

Just like big pharma.

[merrylander]

Just like big pharma.

No one ever accused them of an excess of morals.

[beej]

I could start a whole new thread on big pharma and probably will.

[BlueStreak]

"I don't think so either but, sadly, I no longer view that as an impediment. Apart from the NeoCons, Obama has revealed a certain bloodthirstiness that I find very alarming."

I've noticed that too. I just wish he would direct it towards the Republicans.

[BlueStreak]

Actually Obama's actions show that it's not the neocons, that it is the establishment, and the left used antiwar sentiment to advance its' electoral prospects.

Pete

My, what a shock! Next thing I know you're going to tell us that Republicans use the fear of terrorist attacks to get votes.........

[piece-itpete]

The Obama commercials here in Ohio have been vicious, I'd call it mud slinging but it's more like rocks.

Pete

[piece-itpete]

Obama, Reid, Pelosi, Hillary, are all part of that establishment.

Pete

[merrylander]

I'll take Obama, Reid, Pelosi and Hilary and see your Mitt, McConnell, Boehner and Cantor and raise you 5.:p

[finnbow]

I'll take Obama, Reid, Pelosi and Hilary and see your Mitt, McConnell, Boehner and Cantor and raise you 5.:p

Hillary is the only one worth a sh!t in that whole list (and I'm not really a Hillary fan, but think she has done a serviceable job as SoS.) As for those other clowns, I doubt they'd know how to wash a car.

[piece-itpete]

That rules out that fundraising activity to reduce the national debt.

:)

Pete

[piece-itpete]

A stray thought - what if it's just to 'remind' Iran that they'd better not hezzbollah-up the Olympics, or worse yet, they have info about something planned?

Pete

[HatchetJack]

Now did I hear today that Syria threatened to use weapons of mass destruction
on us if we interfered? Sounds like they are trying to "sucker" us in to their
pathetic world.
Hey where did they get all those chemical weapons???? Didn't we think Saddam
may have hid his stash over there to keep us from finding it. I mean he flew
most of his jets over there right?

[finnbow]

Now did I hear today that Syria threatened to use weapons of mass destruction
on us if we interfered? Sounds like they are trying to "sucker" us in to their
pathetic world.
Hey where did they get all those chemical weapons???? Didn't we think Saddam
may have hid his stash over there to keep us from finding it. I mean he flew
most of his jets over there right?

They're just playing what few cards they have to prevent overt allied action against them. As for where they got them, they didn't need any help from Saddam. Hell, they had a nuclear reactor until it was bombed by the Israelis in 2007.

[piece-itpete]

Hundreds dead daily, Assad moving his chemical weapons to the airports and swearing not to use them unless 'outside forces' interfere, Russia state news saying it'd be the end of the world if Assad falls..

And Iran saying they're going to kick their nuke program up another notch. Another sunny day in the ME.

Btw Jack I remember the CIA said that Saddam did move lots of at least chemical weapons to Syria before shock & awe.

Pete

[bobabode]

A stray thought - what if it's just to 'remind' Iran that they'd better not hezzbollah-up the Olympics, or worse yet, they have info about something planned?

Pete

You might be on to something there Pete.

[BlueStreak]

Obama, Reid, Pelosi, Hillary, are all part of that establishment.

Pete

I'll take Obama, Reid, Pelosi and Hilary and see your Mitt, McConnell, Boehner and Cantor and raise you 5.:p

Hillary is the only one worth a sh!t in that whole list (and I'm not really a Hillary fan, but think she has done a serviceable job as SoS.) As for those other clowns, I doubt they'd know how to wash a car.

All true. But, I'm with Rob.

To my mind, the worst thing that could happen to this country short of a giant asteroid strike would be to go another inch to the right. When the GOP gets the voices in it's head under control, then I'll think about it...........

Dave

[piece-itpete]

Absolutely. If the left looses a smidge the country'll go straight to hell.

Pete

[merrylander]

Absolutely. If the left looses a smidge the country'll go straight to hell.

Pete

Now you are catching on.:D

[piece-itpete]

:D

Pete

[piece-itpete]

Turk-i-ee is bombing inside Syria.

Seems like it might've been a mistake, the last thing Syria needs is an engagement with an outside enemy (and one they can't demaguoge easily either) but with the onging Kurdish troubles who knows.

Pete

[piece-itpete]

Btw, wonder how Rob's doing? Haven't seen him for a while.

Pete

[Boreas]

Turk-i-ee is bombing inside Syria.

Seems like it might've been a mistake, the last thing Syria needs is an engagement with an outside enemy (and one they can't demaguoge easily either) but with the onging Kurdish troubles who knows.

Pete

Precipitated by a Syrian mortar attack on a Turkish town in which 5 women and children were killed. The Turkish parliament has authorize military operations with a limit od 1 year before reauthorization is necessary.

Turkey is a charter member of NATO. The treaty establishing NATO requires that an attack on one member be regarded as an attack on all. Assad's regime may have just signed its own death warrant. I feel profoundly sorry for the Turkish people who now have to fear both their own government and the Turks, potentially NATO as a whole.

John

[piece-itpete]

It's very serious agreed. I know the west has stayed out of Syria because of Russia and China but I doubt they'll stand in the way of NATO.

It's such a stupid thing I wonder if it was intentional by a rebel sympathizer.

Pete

[Boreas]

It's very serious agreed. I know the west has stayed out of Syria because of Russia and China but I doubt they'll stand in the way of NATO.

It's such a stupid thing I wonder if it was intentional by a rebel sympathizer.

Pete

Almost certainly not. Assad has been claiming - and it's probably true - that the rebels are being trained in Turkey and that the border has become pretty porous with rebels launching attacks in Syria and then drifting back across the border into Turkey, much like the Vietcong did in Laos and Cambodia. The mortar attack was probably an effort to take out a rebel safe haven.

John

[piece-itpete]

Ah so.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_U1-2Z8Y6S_I/TEiBfF4A9yI/AAAAAAAAADY/zNGGTKONdBE/S45/Charlie%2BChan.jpg

Pete

[Boreas]

Ah so.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_U1-2Z8Y6S_I/TEiBfF4A9yI/AAAAAAAAADY/zNGGTKONdBE/S45/Charlie%2BChan.jpg

Pete

Ah, Sidney Toler! My second favorite Charlie Chan. My "numba one" was Warner Oland.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRpxI7SMBjj7j-7t7yxl2W-M5MyZcszNPOmWsxrnG7YlZB6daO5

John

[bobabode]

Precipitated by a Syrian mortar attack on a Turkish town in which 5 women and children were killed. The Turkish parliament has authorize military operations with a limit od 1 year before reauthorization is necessary.

Turkey is a charter member of NATO. The treaty establishing NATO requires that an attack on one member be regarded as an attack on all. Assad's regime may have just signed its own death warrant. I feel profoundly sorry for the Turkish people who now have to fear both their own government and the Turks, potentially NATO as a whole.

John
I agree John, Assad's day's are coming to a swift end now. I wonder how how he's going to get it, a tribunal and a swift neck stretch or a RPG enema? He never ever should have messed with Turkey. Turkey has a fine old tradition of scorching the ground. The Syrian's need to end this before it goes any farther.

[Boreas]

I agree John, Assad's day's are coming to a swift end now. I wonder how how he's going to get it, a tribunal and a swift neck stretch or a RPG enema? He never ever should have messed with Turkey. Turkey has a fine old tradition of scorching the ground. The Syrian's need to end this before it goes any farther.

The Turks don't play and, being a NATO country, their military is very well equipped.

Back in the Korean War the North Koreans and the Chinese were scared shitless of the Turks. Even the other Allied Forces were a bit leery of them.

John

[JJIII]

Btw, wonder how Rob's doing? Haven't seen him for a while.

Pete

I was wondering the same thing.

[finnbow]

I was wondering the same thing.

Hopefully I'll see him tomorrow at the mid-Atlantic AK shindig. I'll report back if I see him.

[JJIII]

Hopefully I'll see him tomorrow at the mid-Atlantic AK shindig. I'll report back if I see him.

Take some pics and let us see who we're talking to on that forum.

[piece-itpete]

So was he there?

Funny, on the brit forums I'm on, they're calling for WMD security in Syria, while still bashing Bush, 'see irony they do not' :D

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UclkQbUWoYg/TkordDu4puI/AAAAAAAACVk/lEhZ4Aff7mo/s400/yoda.jpg

Pete

[finnbow]

Rob was there. Another AK bloke took some pictures and will be posting them over there.

[bobabode]

So was he there?

Funny, on the brit forums I'm on, they're calling for WMD security in Syria, while still bashing Bush, 'see irony they do not' :D

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UclkQbUWoYg/TkordDu4puI/AAAAAAAACVk/lEhZ4Aff7mo/s400/yoda.jpg

Pete

Do they tell you to bugger off there too?;)

[piece-itpete]

SOMEONE has to fill in for my English great uncle ;)

'It's all gone straight to hell since women got the vote' :D

Pete

[bobabode]

SOMEONE has to fill in for my English great uncle ;)

'It's all gone straight to hell since women got the vote' :D

Pete

Poncey tosser!:D

[piece-itpete]

LOL!

He really would say it to tease women. When he retired he trained seeing eye dogs and drove the local womens' club on trips (a bunch of nattering old ladies he'd say :))

Pete

[bobabode]

LOL!

He really would say it to tease women. When he retired he trained seeing eye dogs and drove the local womens' club on trips (a bunch of nattering old ladies he'd say :))

Pete

I'll bet the old dude had to chase 'em of with a stick, Pete. Nattering or otherwise.:D LOL!