Boreas
11-13-2012, 10:15 AM
More fun with polls.
The RCP electoral college shows all battleground states and the percentage of people who responded either Obama or Romney. The interesting number (and the one left out in determining RCPs electoral college map) is the percentage who have not responded either way. If these are to be taken as undecideds (who will actually turn out to vote - a problem assumption, but an assumption which may even out given that a good portion of those those who chose a candidate in the opinion polls will not turn out to vote either - and if Obama's got an enthusiasm gap here than this is more bad news for him).
So looking at undecideds in any state where the total respondents who chose a candidate did not put either candidate over 50% we can apply the 'undecided's rule' and assume that 82% of undecideds this late in the game will break for the challenger.
That gives us an electoral college map with Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa too close to call and puts Oregon into leaning Romney.
Thus, the electoral total with toss-ups: Obama= 210, Romney=264. If we create a no toss-up map we get: Obama=264, Romney=274 (Romney wins without Ohio or Pennsylvania).
Yup, I hear it Jay...
The libs are going to learn two things Tuesday...
1) The Teabaggers pack a mighty punch
2) Nate Silver was a one hit wonder !
I wonder whether we've heard the last from these two or whether they'll pop up again with such profound insights.
John
The RCP electoral college shows all battleground states and the percentage of people who responded either Obama or Romney. The interesting number (and the one left out in determining RCPs electoral college map) is the percentage who have not responded either way. If these are to be taken as undecideds (who will actually turn out to vote - a problem assumption, but an assumption which may even out given that a good portion of those those who chose a candidate in the opinion polls will not turn out to vote either - and if Obama's got an enthusiasm gap here than this is more bad news for him).
So looking at undecideds in any state where the total respondents who chose a candidate did not put either candidate over 50% we can apply the 'undecided's rule' and assume that 82% of undecideds this late in the game will break for the challenger.
That gives us an electoral college map with Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa too close to call and puts Oregon into leaning Romney.
Thus, the electoral total with toss-ups: Obama= 210, Romney=264. If we create a no toss-up map we get: Obama=264, Romney=274 (Romney wins without Ohio or Pennsylvania).
Yup, I hear it Jay...
The libs are going to learn two things Tuesday...
1) The Teabaggers pack a mighty punch
2) Nate Silver was a one hit wonder !
I wonder whether we've heard the last from these two or whether they'll pop up again with such profound insights.
John