Syria and Iran.
 

Something's happening, I keep picking up little hints and rumblings about troop movements into the area on international news and folks in the armed services...

NATO or UN into Syria, NATO into Iran?

Pete

Somthing's going on in the Gulf. Heavy-duty minesweeping ops which would speak to the Iran piece. NATO probably there.

Fighting has reached Damascus which pretty much tells me that Assad's support is crumbling with slowly increasing rapidity. I think it's pretty much a given that if Assad sees it beginning to slip away he will go postal on the general populace. I don't think that's going to be allowed to happen. Could be UN but more likely a NATO operation. This would require a heavy NATO presence in the Gulf to deter direct Iranian involvement in Syria.

My 2 cents.

What are you hearing, Pete.

The only thing I've heard in this regard concerns mine clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. That could be preparatory to military operations or simply for the safety of commercial (oil) shipping, notably from Iraq.

John

I've got friends in the armed services being redeployed, Russia knuckling under the pressure, China shut-upped, unremembered things in France24 (comments not stories), and McLaughlin said we'll be fighting with Iran before the election.

This could all be brinkmanship. It's looking serious though.

Pete

Is Kofi Annan still in Moscow, does anyone know?

Yes, or else he left earlier today. Apparently Russia has prepared a draft resolution calling for immediate implementation of the Annan Plan. Additionally, Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed optimism with regard to reaching an agreement in the Security Council.

My concern is that if Assad falls, as appears likely and as he should, the international community will have to move in there physically and micro-manage the transition. Doing anything else would certainly result in a country with a militant Islamist government, with strong al Qaeda and PFLP - General Command influence, sitting on Israel's eastern border. Israel would absolutely have to respond militarily to such an existential threat.

John

And if Assad fails the power vacuum created will quite possibly turn into a blood bath. There is no good answer to any of this.

Another scenario just occurred to me.

1. We could let the almost inevitably extremist government form itself in the wake of Assad's departure.

2. We then organize a strong international force in the Gulf and maybe even in Iraq to contain Iran.

3. We "green light" Israel to take out Syria.

4. At the first sign of a response from Iran we take them on as well.

This is exactly the sort of plan that PNAC would cream their jeans over.

John

I don't think 'we' (Needs America To Operate) dare let the chemical stockpiles fall into jihadist's hands.

Pete

Perhaps, but somehow I just don't see all of that falling into place without some extremist element somewhere doing something boneheaded that turns the region into powder keg. With respect to 'green lighting' Israel there are other players in the region who may not see that as optimal.