whell |
07-10-2023 08:09 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicks
(Post 420962)
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From your article: "This data further suggests the US is not heading toward a recession."
If that's what you want to believe, and I hope the article is correct, then position your investments accordingly.
However, don't dismiss other evidence to the contrary. Yield curve inversion began in 2022, but is now at its lowest level since 1981. Yield curve inversion has also preceded the last 8 recessions.
The next recession, if it happens, will be a bipartisan creation. It will result from Fed rate-hiking (2022-23), which was undertaken to “fight” fast-rising inflation (2021-22), which the Fed caused by massive money "printing" and flooding the economy will billions in debt-spending (2020-21) in response to the COVID lockdowns (2020-21).
You can debate the wisdom of any or all of the above decisions. The one economic bright spot has been consumer spending, which remains resilient in a rather recession-proof manner. As the impact of COVID-related Federal spending starts filtering out of the economy, it will need to be seen if consumer spending continues to be as robust as it is today.
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