Putin's Retirement Plan
 

For reasons, Putin would like to end the war with Ukraine. It's never going to work out like he wanted, it's costing 16 fortunes a minute, and there's some risk of a big military fiasco, Ukrainians breaking through, etc. And he's tired and maybe has health issues. BUT, he doesn't dare back down, it would be just too embarrassing, might give political rivals an opportunity, etc. So, how to get out of this mess?

Crazy plan: have his crazy Wagner group commander stage a "coup." Contrived to "succeed." Prigozhin storms in and purges a bunch of generals, who are blamed for the Ukraine fiasco. But Prigozhin doesn't totally oust Putin--loyal to Russia's great leader, he defends him as the victim of bad advice from the corrupt generals. Prigozhin takes power in a Warlord role, but Putin is kept on as a "head of state," who is now taking a well-earned semi-retirement. Prigozhin, not Putin, has to eat all the crow at the Ukrainian Peace Talks; Putin just shows up to sign the armistice papers. Putin gets out of his fiasco and gets to spend his golden years in luxurious peace. It's a scheme totally worthy of the old KGB officer who now owns Russia.

(I don't expect this to be a bit real. I expect Prigozhin to be dead very soon. But this is so crazy, I had to share....)

I expect both Putin and Prigozhin each have a plan to "retire" the other. The timing just hasn't been right so far.

Stranger things have happened.

At this point I think my conspiracy theory OP was just my attempt to make things make sense when they are actually chaotic.

I'm thinking there is a very good likelihood we are only getting what information they both want out. Both experienced in playing the long game and are good at it. Not stupid or of being rash in their actions. Rather ruthless and cunning.

They are certainly ruthless. Prizogin's claim that he called off his March on Moscow to avoid spilling Russian blood when he is utterly dripping with it is bitterly ironic. But I don't think either is as clever or in control as they'd like you to think.

The Russian military did not put up any resistance against the Wagner forces when they occupyied Rostov, nor when they marched towards Moscow. This is very intriguing and also what did Prigozhin expect to accomplish from his drive into Moscow. Why would Putin have to leave Moscow if he ever did, his army outnumbers Prigozhin by several magnitudes. Overall quite a bizarre incident for an iron fisted ruler.

Seems to me Prigozhin headed for Moscow because Putin denounced him as a traitor and he figured it was him or Putin. It was reactive and he did not have a good plan to take over the country. There is word of some engagement with helicopters, and several were shot down along with a c&c plane, it is said. But Putin basically needed an Army brigade to block the way to Moscow, and the Army is elsewhere.

In this scenario, Putin is caught with pants down and looks weak, but Prigozhin decided trying to take over Russia on the fly was a bit much, and went for a deal instead.

If now Putin is Prigozhin's adversary, Belarus is hostile territory and he will avoid going there, so he may be setting camp in an occupied area of Ukraine. I have read he has a back channel to Ukraine's secret service and could begin to help Ukraine instead to save his skin. Also remains to be seen if and how many Wagner fighters sign contracts with the Russian army. I wouldn't if I were them since sooner or later they will be targeted as traitors. The Russian military and their leaders have been shown to be inept to the entire world and Putin may exact revenge from Ukraine. We know how Putin loves to target civilians population and wish Ukraine had some longer range missiles they can lob into Moscow to keep it fair.

And now this:

Russia’s Prigozhin resurfaces, says Wagner rebelled to fight absorption by military

This ain't over, its still percolating. Prigozhin talking while Putin is in hiding makes Putin look weak and inept even more, especailly if Wagner forces take a pass from joining his military . And where is Prigozhin now?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-wagner-putin/