They are young, strong, and invincible! They also want to keep as much of their paycheck as possible. If you do the math it's easy to guess which way they will go.
"The penalty in 2014 and beyond
The penalty in 2014 is calculated one of 2 ways. You’ll pay whichever of these amounts is higher:
1% of your yearly household income. The maximum penalty is the national average yearly premium for a bronze plan.
$95 per person for the year ($47.50 per child under 18). The maximum penalty per family using this method is $285.
The fee increases every year. In 2015 it’s 2% of income or $325 per person. In 2016 and later years it’s 2.5% of income or $695 per person. After that it is adjusted for inflation.
If you’re uninsured for just part of the year, 1/12 of the yearly penalty applies to each month you’re uninsured. If you’re uninsured for less than 3 months, you don’t have a make a payment."
From here...
https://www.healthcare.gov/what-if-s...erage-in-2014/
Notice I didn't say this would be a wise decision, it's just what I think will happen more often than not. If that turns out to be true, how long can the plan survive without them joining?