80% Increase In Electric Bills?

[BlueStreak]

My electric bill for last month was $120. In the winter, it might reach $200. House payment is $480.

You can have your McMansions, I love small houses with old mortgages.

Dave

[whell]

Frankly, I think the truth is somewhere in between. There's a TON of moving parts to be considered in this equation.

The article makes a point about the "fragility of the grid", a situation that has been discussed but still remains an issue nearly 10 years after the grid malfunction that hit / shut off the east and central US for days. Given the relatively weak economic growth in the US and the resultant reduction in demand for energy, I suspect that grid upgrades (or lack thereof) are probably the bigger near - term issue.

The coal plants that are being decommissioned now are likely the coal plants that are the most expensive to operate. But even the most expensive to operate coal plant is less expensive than natural gas fired plants, and its gas plants that are most likely to replace the capacity lost from closed coal plants. Also, utilities will likely decommission more coal plants in the future rather than invest in maintenance. The economy - hopefully - will also not stay stuck in neutral forever.

So, 80% increase? I don't think anyone can predict that with any certainty. I think it is certain that the regulatory environment drive major changes in power generation costs. That, along with overdue maintenance/upgrades to the transmission grid, are going to drive up costs for the US energy consumer.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by whell

Frankly, I think the truth is somewhere in between. There's a TON of moving parts to be considered in this equation.

The article makes a point about the "fragility of the grid", a situation that has been discussed but still remains an issue nearly 10 years after the grid malfunction that hit / shut off the east and central US for days. Given the relatively weak economic growth in the US and the resultant reduction in demand for energy, I suspect that grid upgrades (or lack thereof) are probably the bigger near - term issue.

The coal plants that are being decommissioned now are likely the coal plants that are the most expensive to operate. But even the most expensive to operate coal plant is less expensive than natural gas fired plants, and its gas plants that are most likely to replace the capacity lost from closed coal plants. Also, utilities will likely decommission more coal plants in the future rather than invest in maintenance. The economy - hopefully - will also not stay stuck in neutral forever.

So, 80% increase? I don't think anyone can predict that with any certainty. I think it is certain that the regulatory environment drive major changes in power generation costs. That, along with overdue maintenance/upgrades to the transmission grid, are going to drive up costs for the US energy consumer.

Your faith in the good will and honesty of the investor class (that runs things like the Power Industry) is touching.

I suspect you missed this thread a little while back: http://www.politicalchat.org/showthread.php?t=7405

[whell]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Your faith in the good will and honesty of the investor class (that runs things like the Power Industry) is touching.

I suspect you missed this thread a little while back: http://www.politicalchat.org/showthread.php?t=7405

Wow. Al-Jazeera cited as a reputable source of news.

Here's the back-story in the Brayton plant. Its old, its dirty. It can't survive the revised EPA regs, even its former owners were looking at closing it down, and folks in the community wanted the plant to be closed years ago.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/...siM/story.html

Somerset resident Pauline Rodrigues, a member of a grass-roots group that has pushed for the plant to be closed, said she has mixed feelings about Brayton’s retirement, given that it is Somerset’s biggest taxpayer.

Brayton’s owners have agreed to pay the town $16.75 million through 2016, according to the town assessor’s office.

But in viewing the closing from a health perspective, Rodrigues said, “I am thrilled to death.”

More here:

http://www.providencejournal.com/bre...on-in-2017.ece

Energy analyst David Schlissel said “a perfect storm” of circumstances has created a bleak outlook for coal-fired power plants in the United States. The price of natural gas, coal’s chief competitor these days, is historically low. Overall demand for power is weak because the economy hasn’t fully recovered. And utilities are increasingly being required to purchase electricity from renewable sources, including wind and solar.

Environmental regulations have also tightened, making it harder for coal plants, which are generally old and dirty, to stay in operation.

And:

Environmental and public health advocates have long lobbied for the closing of the plant. As recently as 2008, it was the leading source of toxic emissions in New England and in many years has been the top source of air pollution in Rhode Island, said Sylvia Broude, executive director of the Toxics Action Center.

So much for Al-Jazeera's presumed objectivity.

[donquixote99]

So Whell, can you quote something from the Al-Jazeera article that in your opinion is unreliable or nonobjective? Can you lay out the link that you seem to think is there between what's in your post, and such assessment of al Al-Jazeera?

[whell]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

So Whell, can you quote something from the Al-Jazeera article that in your opinion is unreliable or nonobjective? Can you lay out the link that you seem to think is there between what's in your post, and such assessment of al Al-Jazeera?

All of it, Don. I guess everyone loves a conspiracy. However, the fact that the plant has been on the bubble for years and the new owners finally made the decision to close it - a decision that has no particular novelty to it given the fate of old coal fired plants across the county - does not a conspiracy make.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by whell

All of it, Don. I guess everyone loves a conspiracy. However, the fact that the plant has been on the bubble for years and the new owners finally made the decision to close it - a decision that has no particular novelty to it given the fate of old coal fired plants across the county - does not a conspiracy make.

"All of it," huh? Talk about a wide tarbrush. Your assessment remains devoid of support.

Let's get down to specifics. Here's a quote from the Al Jazerra piece:

The Independent System Operator–New England, which runs the electricity market, asserts in a filing that it has no duty, reason or intent to investigate whether closing Brayton Point constitutes market manipulation. That claim is shocking, because preventing manipulation is the primary reason the market operator exists.

There are two claims of fact in this quotation. Can you show either of them to be false? You certainly should be able to falsify at least one of them, since you claim "all" of the Al Jazerra piece is unreliable and non-objective.

In addition to the two facts, the quote of course contains opinion--that the Independent System Operator's stance is "shocking." But unless you show one of the facts to be in error, I find it hard to see anything unreasonable about that opinion.

What I find unreasonable and nonobjective is your apparent prejudiced willingness to trash Al Jazeera based on nothing at all.

[whell]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

There are two claims of fact in this quotation. Can you show either of them to be false? You certainly should be able to falsify at least one of them, since you claim "all" of the Al Jazerra piece is unreliable and non-objective.

In addition to the two facts, the quote of course contains opinion--that the Independent System Operator's stance is "shocking." But unless you show one of the facts to be in error, I find it hard to see anything unreasonable about that opinion.

What I find unreasonable and nonobjective is your apparent prejudiced willingness to trash Al Jazeera based on nothing at all.

Fine. Go to ISO- NE's web site and post a citation that confirms that: "preventing manipulation is the primary reason the market operator exists."

As for your concerns about my "willingness to trash Al Jazeera", ask me if I care.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by whell

Fine. Go to ISO- NE's web site and post a citation that confirms that: "preventing manipulation is the primary reason the market operator exists."

As for your concerns about my "willingness to trash Al Jazeera", ask me if I care.

BURDEN OF PROOF SHIFT

You said the Al Jazeera article is no good, but you can't show one little thing that's no good about it.

You don't care? About whether there's a particle of truth to your mudslinging? Well that was obvious, actually, but your frank admission is still a little but startling....

[merrylander]

The problem here is that knowing that the Brayton plant was to be decomissioned why did Energy pay so much money to acquire it?