World War III?

[RickeyM]

Currently Putin has the West (NATO, USA, etc.) afraid to intervene to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion. "Helping Ukraine might provoke Putin". Don't wanna get drawn into war with Russia. Afraid that could/would lead to WWIII. As far as a threat of WWIII who would engage on Russia's side if it wasn't under attack itself? In a limited engagement, IE kicking Russia out of Ukraine, would Pootin resort to nukes? I know he might frame defense of Ukraine as an attack on Mother Russia itself but outside of Russia who'd believe it.

Maybe another factor why Donny's pal wouldn't invade while he was in office. No sport in it. Donny would have folded like a cheap lawn chair. During the Cuban Missile Crisis Kennedy made Khrushchev blink. I think Putin wants to go down in history as making Biden blink.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by RickeyM

Currently Putin has the West (NATO, USA, etc.) afraid to intervene to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion. "Helping Ukraine might provoke Putin". Don't wanna get drawn into war with Russia. Afraid that could/would lead to WWIII. As far as a threat of WWIII who would engage on Russia's side if it wasn't under attack itself? In a limited engagement, IE kicking Russia out of Ukraine, would Pootin resort to nukes? I know he might frame defense of Ukraine as an attack on Mother Russia itself but outside of Russia who'd believe it.

Maybe another factor why Donny's pal wouldn't invade while he was in office. No sport in it. Donny would have folded like a cheap lawn chair. During the Cuban Missile Crisis Kennedy made Khrushchev blink. I think Putin wants to go down in history as making Biden blink.

Another view: Biden is predictable, more rational. Trump is erratic.

Now in a broader context. Why should any president risk W111 over Ukraine?

[donquixote99]

Now in a broader context. Why should any president risk W111 over Ukraine?

My willingness to do that is starkly limited, because WWIII is really overwhelmingly terrible. It's probably unpopular to say so, but it's much much worse than Russia conquering Ukraine.

That said, Putin doesn't really want to risk WWIII either, so lines can be drawn and some things can be done. But one must be careful. Get into an escalation spiral and things could go totally wrong.

The big danger is if Putin really feels existentially and immediately threatened, and doesn't see an effective response. He becomes unpredictable then.

[Oerets]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Another view: Biden is predictable, more rational. Trump is erratic.

Now in a broader context. Why should any president risk W111 over Ukraine?

So it is to be allowed for Pudtin to threaten hostile action to then act aggressively, killing indiscriminately. He is the one pushing this world towards a third world war.

If not him another will learn that the nuclear card is one to play. Thinking that sanity will prevail and allow their aggression.

There will come a point when the decision will be made to stand up to rather then bow down.

I'm thinking now is as good as any.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by Oerets

So it is to be allowed for Pudtin to threaten hostile action to then act aggressively, killing indiscriminately. He is the one pushing this world towards a third world war.

If not him another will learn that the nuclear card is one to play. Thinking that sanity will prevail and allow their aggression.

There will come a point when the decision will be made to stand up to rather then bow down.

I'm thinking now is as good as any.

There is no other apart from the US with such a big nuclear card.

BTW there are deconfliction teams re Ukraine.

[Oerets]

Pudtin thinks he can bluff the nuke card and the US will blink. There in lies the dilemma for the world.

I'd call his bluff because it will happen one day. Best to go in with a strong hand when calling a bluff.

[RickeyM]

M.A.D. isn't effective if one side believes the other won't commit. The question to be put to Putin is conquering Ukraine worth starting a nuclear conflict? Putin needs to be told leave Ukraine or you'll be facing more than the Ukraine Defense Force and yes, we can do it without nukes. You fucked up when you started going after civilian targets. We have no desires on Russian soil but you do need to leave Ukraine. Stay on your side of the border and we (Ukraine/ NATO/ the US/ whoever) will stay on the other. That includes lobbing any munitions into Ukraine itself

[Dondilion]

One is presupposing that the power that be considers Ukraine to be that important.

[Pio1980]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

One is presupposing that the power that be considers Ukraine to be that important.

As a stepping stone to Poland and Western Europe, yes.
We've been here before.

[donquixote99]

In NATO wargames, I've heard it said, once the nuclear threshold is breached, it usually goes all the way. Of course, all the participants know it's a game. To make it more real, they should be told that if their game results in a general nuclear exchange, they will be taken out and shot.