Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

DeSatan calls impacts from Ian potentially 'a 500-year flood event'

https://www.wesh.com/article/desanti...rida/41441488#

Sorry your crystal ball was so badly broken. You should feel even dumber than you are right about now, but you're incapable of shame, sadly.

I should feel dumb? It's you that apparently thinks Desantis is some sort of climate scientist, bonehead.

The data just doesn't support the premise that "climate change is causing more frequent and severe named storms. Sorry, but it doesn't. Check out the data here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml This data goes back to 1851. Page 15 here updates the data for through 2010. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf.

Even this data is problematic in a couple ways:
1) the hurricane ranking scale we use today (Cat 1 - Cat 5) has been around only since 1971. The create the table on page 15, NOAA had to go back and extrapolate rankings from available data.
2) Of course, the further back in time you go, the less reliable and consistent that data will be.

Be that as it may, it appears that the frequency and severity of named storms has actually been DECREASING slightly. That's true if you look back to 1851, but it's also true if you look at just the last 50 years. In the last 50 years, the average total named storms by decade is 14.29 versus the historical average of 17.7. Also, in the last 50 years, the average of named storms Cat 3 or greater is 5.43 versus the historical average of 6.

Those historical averages include Katrina in 2005, which was one of the worst storms of the last 150 years in terms of financial impact and severity.