No matter how we slice and dice things on a national scale, Trump has a very tortured path to win enough electoral votes to be come president. He is so caustic and mindlessly uncaring that he has guaranteed he will not carry states with a significant minority Hispanic population, black population, and now he is working on alienating veterans' families and women voters.
The long and short of it is analysts are saying he needs to sweep the critical trifecta of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with their large cache of electoral votes, a conservative swing population, and a receptive bloc of angry white voters. Michigan is a step behind, but these three are critical for him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us...race.html?_r=0