Iran May Have Nuke Bomb w/in 6 Months

[whell]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226145909062

These bastards continue to enrich uranium, and continue an aggressive missile testing program. Whatever you may think of their actual capabilities, I think the leadership in Iran is crazy enough to use the bomb if they ever get one.

[finnbow]

While I agree that they're pretty whacky, if they're smart/rational enough to develop a bomb, they're smart enough to know about MAD. To a very real degree, our adventurism in the Mideast, along with our unequivocal support of the only nuclear nation in the Mideast has them feeling the need for the bomb. They're not doing this in a vacuum. Quite unfortunate.

[piece-itpete]

It's our fault?

We think a nuke Pakistan is a problem...

Pete

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by piece-itpete

It's our fault?

We think a nuke Pakistan is a problem...

Pete

I said nothing of fault. I said that their building of a nuke is in reaction to our adventurism on both of their northern and western borders and our willing ignorance of Israel's nuclear program. Nations don't undertake such massive programs for no reason.

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

I said nothing of fault. I said that their building of a nuke is in reaction to our adventurism on both of their northern and western borders and our willing ignorance of Israel's nuclear program. Nations don't undertake such massive programs for no reason.

I don't agree. Iran has been quite open about its goals and desires - calling for the DESTRUCTION of Israel and the US. And he thinks he's just the guy to do it. And, its suggested that he may think that this will bring about the arrival of the Mahdi, whose arrival he prayed for during a speech at the UN.

Yeah, I think they just might be crazy enough to use it.

[piece-itpete]

I see Finn. But hasn't this gone on for some time? Or are we going back to our support for the Shah?

Pete

[BlueStreak]

I hope the initial test is on the surface, so we at least get to see some cool video.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

I don't agree. Iran has been quite open about its goals and desires - calling for the DESTRUCTION of Israel and the US. And he thinks he's just the guy to do it. And, its suggested that he may think that this will bring about the arrival of the Mahdi, whose arrival he prayed for during a speech at the UN.

Yeah, I think they just might be crazy enough to use it.

I suppose you're referring to Ahmadinejad. He's not even the power behind the Islamic Republic of Iran. He's really more of a figurehead who reports to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Two things - He's never called for the destruction of the US. Secondly, his call to "wipe Israel off the map" is a loose and somewhat inaccurate translation of his speech. I think his quote was more along the lines of "in the future, we hope that the state of Israel will ultimately disappear from the Mideast." * This really isn't greatly different from the beliefs of our own "rapturists."

*He was embroiled in controversy in regards to statements he made about the Holocaust and for commenting that "the occupying regime" would, according to various translations, be eliminated from or "vanish from the pages of time." The New York Times reported this as a call for the destruction of the State of Israel when the phrase was translated as "wiped off the map,".[157][158] Experts say the word "map" doesn't even appear in the quote. It has also been claimed that he said that 'Israels regime will be wiped of the map', not the actual state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud..._and_Palestine

What is it that makes Khamenei and Ahmadinejad immune to the dynamics of MAD?

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

I suppose you're referring to Ahmadinejad. He's not even the power behind the Islamic Republic of Iran. He's really more of a figurehead who reports to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Two things - He's never called for the destruction of the US. Secondly, his call to "wipe Israel off the map" is a loose and somewhat inaccurate translation of his speech. I think his quote was more along the lines of "in the future, we hope that the state of Israel will ultimately disappear from the Mideast." * This really isn't greatly different from the beliefs of our own "rapturists."

*He was embroiled in controversy in regards to statements he made about the Holocaust and for commenting that "the occupying regime" would, according to various translations, be eliminated from or "vanish from the pages of time." The New York Times reported this as a call for the destruction of the State of Israel when the phrase was translated as "wiped off the map,".[157][158] Experts say the word "map" doesn't even appear in the quote. It has also been claimed that he said that 'Israels regime will be wiped of the map', not the actual state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud..._and_Palestine

What is it that makes Khamenei and Ahmadinejad immune to the dynamics of MAD?

First, I'll assume that neither you nor I speak Farsi. So, we only have the word of interpreters - who are typically followed by spin doctors who are either attempting to "clear up misunderstandings" or amplify parts of a particular speech for their own purposes. Here, the NY Times posts the transcript of the speech in question.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/we...543417&ei=5070

Frankly, when you couple speeches like this with other evidence, like Iran's apparent involvement in military actions against the US in Iraq (IED's), Iran's hostage - taking of British sailors in "disputed waters", and of course their missile deployment and nuke program, its hard for me to avoid taking the Iran regime's mouth-piece (Ahmadinejad) at his word.

You also don't see the religious leadership of Iran stepping forward with any attempt to "clarify" his remarks, or repudiate them. Not exactly comforting either.

Second, I think Iran is potentially immune to MAD because of some or all of the reasons below:

- the leadership is nuts
- they don't subscribe to a rational view of MAD
- they don't believe that the US would counter-strike with nukes if Iran used them against Israel, while also believing that their fellow Islam travelers (i.e. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, etc.) would jump into the breach immediately and attack Israel right along with them.
- they really believe that the use of nukes would hasten their version of the apocalypse, and the arrival of the Mahdi.
-

[bhunter]

Originally Posted by finnbow

While I agree that they're pretty whacky, if they're smart/rational enough to develop a bomb, they're smart enough to know about MAD. To a very real degree, our adventurism in the Mideast, along with our unequivocal support of the only nuclear nation in the Mideast has them feeling the need for the bomb. They're not doing this in a vacuum. Quite unfortunate.

Rational and Iran do not belong in the same sentence. Their leadership is composed of radical Islamists that would like nothing better than to upset the tea cart in the ME. Assuming that other nations have the same power calculus that we do is a mistake. Ironically, without Saddam around as a power check, there are no easy solutions to an expansionist Iran.