Beginning of the end of Putin?

[donquixote99]

Contrary to everyone's impulse (including my own) to explain recent events in Russia as the fruit of intelligent scheming, I now think it was all a fairly chaotic series of action/reaction. Prigozin, faced with demands to subordinate to the MOD and lose power as an independent force, mutinied against his rivals. Putin, in coming out hard against him Saturday morning, made it a do or die Prigozin vs. Putin fight. Hence the March on Moscow. Putin, realizing he does not have the troops in position to stop him, is forced to flee and negotiate. Prigozin, realizing that even if he gets into Moscow he's bitten off more than he can chew, takes a deal. See this analysis by Thomas Freedman, the best I think of several I've read: https://samf.substack.com/p/that-was-the-coup-that-was

[Ike Bana]

Putin continues to be invisible...commented on here in the non-partisan Project Syndicate webpage by Polish Journalist and historian WACŁAW RADZIWINOWICZ.

Putin himself is clearly not up to the hellishly difficult task he now faces: re-asserting control over the country’s demoralized and divided military forces. Until now, his apologists, who have long seemed to believe that he is a political magician who can always pull a rabbit out of his hat, praised him for responding with boasts to the crises his war against Ukraine has unleashed. Today, his boasts are an insecure bully’s threats. If he tries issuing them again, and Prigozhin (or some other rebel) does not fold, Russia will face the prospect of civil war – perhaps short-lived, but bloody.

Putin not resurfacing by now says more about this than anything else.

[donquixote99]

I agree the Putin has been weakened by this, and shown to be so. His and the Russians army's abilities are now correspondingly reduced.

[Ike Bana]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

I agree the Putin has been weakened by this, and shown to be so. His and the Russians army's abilities are now correspondingly reduced.

Certainly. This insurrection began on Friday, it's now Monday and there's no sign of Putin. I can't imagine something as serious as this happening here and there's nothing out of the White House by the fourth day??? Putin's hysterical threatening on Friday was not an assurance to any Russian that everything was secure. Threatening personal revenge...that's all anybody gets out of Putin or Trump....personal threats of revenge.

And if there's no significant reaction by the Russian people to the disaster of this war in Ukraine...well then it's more proof that the Russian people have exactly the government they deserve.

Then again...I'm still pretty infuriated by the flaccid response of the American people to Bush's "War against terra" back on March 19, 2003. Bush should have been dumped by the people of this country on November 2, 2004. And anybody is surprised that every time Trump runs for president he gets 46% of the vote and 60% of the vote of white people?

Who am I to pick on the Russian people, eh?

[RickeyM]

Originally Posted by Ike Bana

Putin continues to be invisible...commented on here in the non-partisan Project Syndicate webpage by Polish Journalist and historian WACŁAW RADZIWINOWICZ.

Putin not resurfacing by now says more about this than anything else.

Originally Posted by donquixote99

I agree the Putin has been weakened by this, and shown to be so. His and the Russians army's abilities are now correspondingly reduced.

If you're worried about a knife in the back you don't walk into the room backwards, or at all.

[Ike Bana]

Interesting article in the Atlantic...

Putin Is Caught in His Own Trap

After spending years cultivating public apathy, the Russian president found his people indifferent to his fate.

Democratic politicians spend a lot of time thinking about how to engage people and persuade them to vote. But a certain kind of autocrat, of whom Putin is the outstanding example, seeks to convince people of the opposite: not to participate, not to care, and not to follow politics at all. The propaganda used in Putin’s Russia has been designed in part for this purpose.

Putin wanted the Russian electorate to be indifferent about who was running things. The reaction of the residents of Wagner occupied Rostov-on-Don, indicates he was successful. And this seems to be the reason why there's been no sign of Putin since his panicy little speech before heading out of town on Friday. He thought there was a real possibility that Moscow could fall to Progozhin.

And...what Trump would like to see, more than anything is an apathetic US electorate.

[Dondilion]

Prigozhin was used as a sponge/bait in the Bahkmut area to buy time for the Russians to erect deep defensive layers in eastern and southeastern Ukraine.
These are Kursk (battle of Kursk) type defenses, sometimes six layers deep.

Behind these are stand-off equipment both aerial and artillery. In front is for the most part fairly flat land. Furthermore, the Russians have effective mine
throwing equipment at hand.

Prigozhin did well, especially in the Bakhmut where the Ukrainians kept sending more and more men to an area that according to Western media has no strategic value.

However, Prigozhin is a loudmouth and a mercenary, and officers schooled in Soviet doctrine abhor such.

When he realized that his time was near and that he was about to join Motorola and Givi he made his move.

Lukashenko of Belarus probably convinced him that his move was a bad one and that he was essentially abetting Balkanizers.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Prigozhin was used as a sponge/bait in the Bahkmut area to buy time for the Russians to erect deep defensive layers in eastern and southeastern Ukraine.
These are Kursk (battle of Kursk) type defenses, sometimes six layers deep.

Behind these are stand-off equipment both aerial and artillery. In front is for the most part fairly flat land. Furthermore, the Russians have effective mine
throwing equipment at hand.

Prigozhin did well, especially in the Bakhmut where the Ukrainians kept sending more and more men to an area that according to Western media has no strategic value.

However, Prigozhin is a loudmouth and a mercenary, and officers schooled in Soviet doctrine abhor such.

When he realized that his time was near and that he was about to join Motorola and Givi he made his move.

Lukashenko of Belarus probably convinced him that his move was a bad one and that he was essentially abetting Balkanizers.

You should get a job with RT or TASS (if you don't work for them already). Sometimes I think your account is actually run by Margarita Simonyan.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by finnbow

You should get a job with RT or TASS (if you don't work for them already). Sometimes I think your account is actually run by Margarita Simonyan.

It is too good? I read New York Times since I was ten years old and one thing it has taught me...that I should read between the lines and form my own opinion.

The Ukraine situation is railed by headlines that are close to Atlanticists' objectives.

The US active military brass and Lloyd Austin are trying to transmit a message to President Biden but Biden is heavily surrounded by neo-cons.

I like Uncle Joe because he is the only neo-modern Democratic president who supports his base. I hope he maintains a clear eye.

[Ike Bana]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Prigozhin was used as a sponge/bait in the Bahkmut area to buy time for the Russians to erect deep defensive layers in eastern and southeastern Ukraine.
These are Kursk (battle of Kursk) type defenses, sometimes six layers deep.

Behind these are stand-off equipment both aerial and artillery. In front is for the most part fairly flat land. Furthermore, the Russians have effective mine
throwing equipment at hand.

Prigozhin did well, especially in the Bakhmut where the Ukrainians kept sending more and more men to an area that according to Western media has no strategic value.

However, Prigozhin is a loudmouth and a mercenary, and officers schooled in Soviet doctrine abhor such.

When he realized that his time was near and that he was about to join Motorola and Givi he made his move.

Lukashenko of Belarus probably convinced him that his move was a bad one and that he was essentially abetting Balkanizers.

Blah...fucking...blah...who fucking cares about this bullshit minutiae about the sociopathic behavior of Russian oligarchs and autocrats.

This "war" is an act of pure murderous aggression by a sick war criminal who is clearly following the Hitler Sudetenland playbook. There's no other discussion required.

One last thing...the Russian people are cut from the same fucking cloth as the good little nazi Germans in the 1930's, lining the streets and throwing up the Hitler salute.