Election Day Predictions

[icenine]

Ok lets all be friends and predict the election, just like when we predicted the Supreme Court decision last summer.

Obama
Wins Ohio,Virginia and Florida.

I think he takes Ohio for the bailout and fracking, Virginia because of women voting against the GOP on Murdock and ultrasound issue, and Florida because of his get out the vote strategy and opposition among seniors against changes in Medicare.

It will be very close.

[Oerets]

I have fears that Sandy's aftermath might play a so far unknown effect on voting day.



Barney

[piece-itpete]

I think the worm can turn either way - I refuse to say

Fracking won't pull Ohio though. A lot of lower income folks in the southeast part of the state, typically old fashioned union style Dems, have made a great deal of money from it, and the innercity folks could care less. It might play in typically Dem upper income areas?

Pete

[Boreas]

I think the President will be re-elected, based on the Electoral College. The popular vote is another matter. I think yesterday he would have lost the popular vote to Romney but post-Sandy? If the Federal response continues to be effective and if people realize that a privatized FEMA under Romney would be a Haliburton/Blackwater nightmare then I think the President wins the popular vote.

Obama
Colorado
Iowa
Michigan
Nevada*
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

Romney
Florida*
North Carolina

*Not real sure about these.

John

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by Oerets

I have fears that Sandy's aftermath might play a so far unknown effect on voting day.



Barney

Logistics could be a problem in New York and New Jersey but they're safe Blue States anyway. Otherwise, I think it's a question of public perception of the Federal response. So far so good. Fox will put all the negative spin on it that they can possibly manage but their viewers are locked into Romney anyway.

John

[icenine]

Originally Posted by piece-itpete

I think the worm can turn either way - I refuse to say

Fracking won't pull Ohio though. A lot of lower income folks in the southeast part of the state, typically old fashioned union style Dems, have made a great deal of money from it, and the innercity folks could care less. It might play in typically Dem upper income areas?

Pete

I would think the Southeast would be Romney anyway, since the coal country part of the state is more like West Virginia, Kentucky and Virginia.
But would not he be able to at least gain on the margins there with the fracking success? Your part of Ohio, Toledo and the rest of the state are going to go with the President I think.

[piece-itpete]

Oh you mean fracking as a plus for Obama? I doubt it. Outside NE Ohio and Toledo the SE coal country is a reliable Dem area, and there's a reason Mitt pounded on coal in the debates. The coal miners union refused to endore Obama, an unheard of thing it that part of the state.

I won't call it precisely because Ohio is so close

Pete

[barbara]

The only prediction I have at this point is that I'll be so glad the obnoxious political phone calls will end once the election is over.

[d-ray657]

Originally Posted by barbara

The only prediction I have at this point is that I'll be so glad the obnoxious political phone calls will end once the election is over.

The beauty of caller ID.

Regards,

D-Ray

[finnbow]

I'm thinking Obama will win by a reasonable electoral vote margin (though he'll lose Florida IMHO), but he'll lose the popular vote. Romney has a big margin in the rock solid red(neck) states.