Iran May Have Nuke Bomb w/in 6 Months

[whell]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226145909062

These bastards continue to enrich uranium, and continue an aggressive missile testing program. Whatever you may think of their actual capabilities, I think the leadership in Iran is crazy enough to use the bomb if they ever get one.

[finnbow]

While I agree that they're pretty whacky, if they're smart/rational enough to develop a bomb, they're smart enough to know about MAD. To a very real degree, our adventurism in the Mideast, along with our unequivocal support of the only nuclear nation in the Mideast has them feeling the need for the bomb. They're not doing this in a vacuum. Quite unfortunate.

[bhunter]

Originally Posted by finnbow

While I agree that they're pretty whacky, if they're smart/rational enough to develop a bomb, they're smart enough to know about MAD. To a very real degree, our adventurism in the Mideast, along with our unequivocal support of the only nuclear nation in the Mideast has them feeling the need for the bomb. They're not doing this in a vacuum. Quite unfortunate.

Rational and Iran do not belong in the same sentence. Their leadership is composed of radical Islamists that would like nothing better than to upset the tea cart in the ME. Assuming that other nations have the same power calculus that we do is a mistake. Ironically, without Saddam around as a power check, there are no easy solutions to an expansionist Iran.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by bhunter

A. Rational and Iran do not belong in the same sentence. Their leadership is composed of radical Islamists that would like nothing better than to upset the tea cart in the ME. Assuming that other nations have the same power calculus that we do is a mistake. B. Ironically, without Saddam around as a power check, there are no easy solutions to an expansionist Iran.

A. I'm a little uncomfortable simply ascribing irrationality to a nation or its people simply because we don't have a real good read on them (or perhaps even because a real good read of them may result in us recognizing that they're reacting to us.)

B. And why is it exactly that Saddam is no longer a power check in that area? Might it have something to do with us invading them because we thought they may have WMD's? Sound familiar to the Iranian threat we're now hearing?

[bhunter]

Originally Posted by finnbow

A. I'm a little uncomfortable simply ascribing irrationality to a nation or its people simply because we don't have a real good read on them (or perhaps even because a real good read of them may result in us recognizing that they're reacting to us.)

B. And why is it exactly that Saddam is no longer a power check in that area? Might it have something to do with us invading them because we thought they may have WMD's? Sound familiar to the Iranian threat we're now hearing?

Sure we do. We know that most of the ME's problems are endemic and have little to do with the presence of Israel. Israel is just a convenient scapegoat. If one examines the ME you'll find some common threads across the various countries. All tend to suffer from inherent tribalism, religious intolerance, corrupt government, authoritarian centralized government, sheltered economies and gender apartheid. The central theme is that of religious intolerance and a strict hierarchy. There is nothing really that different today than there was back in the time of Saladin as far as the Western mantras of egalitarianism and humanism is concerned. The tenets of Islam are simply incongruent with our Western humanist egalitarian values.

We can also rely upon the statements and actions of those countries as a measure of their geopolitical goals. Do you really believe that Iran would embrace the U.S. if we didn't support Israel?

I do not know how good our intelligence currently is wrt Iran. I would hope that it has been improved over the last decade. The reliance on technological assets is limited when you're dealing with backward cultures, thus, a real need for ground operatives. That, however, takes a long time to cultivate.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by bhunter

The central theme is that of religious intolerance and a strict hierarchy. There is nothing really that different today than there was back in the time of Saladin

I guess you really do not know anything re the powerful hasidics in Israel.

[piece-itpete]

It's our fault?

We think a nuke Pakistan is a problem...

Pete

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by piece-itpete

It's our fault?

We think a nuke Pakistan is a problem...

Pete

I said nothing of fault. I said that their building of a nuke is in reaction to our adventurism on both of their northern and western borders and our willing ignorance of Israel's nuclear program. Nations don't undertake such massive programs for no reason.

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

I said nothing of fault. I said that their building of a nuke is in reaction to our adventurism on both of their northern and western borders and our willing ignorance of Israel's nuclear program. Nations don't undertake such massive programs for no reason.

I don't agree. Iran has been quite open about its goals and desires - calling for the DESTRUCTION of Israel and the US. And he thinks he's just the guy to do it. And, its suggested that he may think that this will bring about the arrival of the Mahdi, whose arrival he prayed for during a speech at the UN.

Yeah, I think they just might be crazy enough to use it.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

I don't agree. Iran has been quite open about its goals and desires - calling for the DESTRUCTION of Israel and the US. And he thinks he's just the guy to do it. And, its suggested that he may think that this will bring about the arrival of the Mahdi, whose arrival he prayed for during a speech at the UN.

Yeah, I think they just might be crazy enough to use it.

I suppose you're referring to Ahmadinejad. He's not even the power behind the Islamic Republic of Iran. He's really more of a figurehead who reports to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Two things - He's never called for the destruction of the US. Secondly, his call to "wipe Israel off the map" is a loose and somewhat inaccurate translation of his speech. I think his quote was more along the lines of "in the future, we hope that the state of Israel will ultimately disappear from the Mideast." * This really isn't greatly different from the beliefs of our own "rapturists."

*He was embroiled in controversy in regards to statements he made about the Holocaust and for commenting that "the occupying regime" would, according to various translations, be eliminated from or "vanish from the pages of time." The New York Times reported this as a call for the destruction of the State of Israel when the phrase was translated as "wiped off the map,".[157][158] Experts say the word "map" doesn't even appear in the quote. It has also been claimed that he said that 'Israels regime will be wiped of the map', not the actual state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud..._and_Palestine

What is it that makes Khamenei and Ahmadinejad immune to the dynamics of MAD?