Syria Liberated from Brutal Assad Regime
 

The fall of Bashar Assad after 13 years of war in Syria brings to an end a decades-long dynasty

What happens now is anybody's guess but both Russia and Iran are the big losers with Hezbollah's influence diminished. Assad is of course is toast, he will now need to learn Russian.

Hezbollah's influence is minimized, Israel was keeping a close eye on them, even bombing their routes into Syria. Turkey will come out as the big winner since they were the main sponsors of the rebel group. But this will also embolden the Turkish Kurds who have also gained territory inside Syria, most of which they claimed as theirs anyway. Will the Turks and Kurds make peace? Will the rebels rebrand themselves and introduce democratic norms in Syria? What will Iran and Russia do now since they have lost respect and even more importantly, what happens to the Russian naval bases on Syria's coast?

The rebels were brilliant opportunists by attacking Assad's forces when Israel had decapitated Iran and Hezbollah while Ukraine had kept Russia on the ropes in their homeland. Most importantly, Assad's forces were not interested in dying for him anymore, so the rebels basically displaced them in short order.

https://apnews.com/article/syria-bas...933856d99c9a8d

Offering Assad asylum in Moscow (and precluding the incoming Syrian govt from getting its hands on Assad) may well influence the incoming government when it comes to allowing any Russian presence in their country. It will be interesting to see what kind of retribution is sought against Assad and his henchmen.

As for the Kurds in NE Syria, I think they're fucked. Turkey's support for the rebels was likely dependent upon the new government going hard against the PKK in Syria.

MSNBC is saying the rebels are tied to Al Qaeda without further comment. Out of the frying pan into the fire?

They were. The question is whether they still are. Their leader is making noises like they're not anymore and that it had been an alliance of convenience against Assad. He said he now supports pluralism in Syria and has no beef with the Shia, Kurds or Alawites (he's Sunni). We'll see.

When one looks at countries neighboring Syria, most are basket cases like Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. Or perhaps the liberation of Iraq and Libya from their own strongmen will be a lesson.

But with as many factions participating in deposing Assad, most of them Islamic Jihadis, governance will not be easy. Also multiple sects like Alawites, Druze with the usual Sunni Shia enmity, establishing a government will not be easy.

Or worse, now armed with Assad's armaments, they will go after Israel and lose. In the larger picture, I don't believe that the middle east can exist without perpetual infighting. Life has no value while death fighting enemies promises a spot in heaven.

As Tahseen Bashir, a lifelong Egyptian diplomat once said, "Egypt is the only nation-state in the Arab world; the rest are just tribes with flags."

Too bad early reports that Assad had been given the 'Prigozhin Treatment' near Homs turned out to be not accurate. Apparently, Bashar and family are now Muscovites for the time being.
<shrug>

Heather Cox Richardson
Late last night, the White House said in a statement that “President Biden and his team are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners.”

https://substack.com/app-link/post?p...EjQfrMZ3Ay258M

Heather works hard to turn out a quality product nearly every day. Maybe you should just run the teaser so she can sell a few subscriptions! :D

Too late. Israel is in the process of destroying Assad's military installations and weapons stock piles.

Israel, Seeing an Opportunity, Demolishes Syria’s Military Assets

Israel flag should now include the slogan "Don't Fuck With Us" in Arabic. Not a fan of Israel by any means, but one has to credit them with diminishing Iran, knee capping both Hamas and Hezbollah and now whomever gains power in Syria.

The New United States of Israel will include Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. :D

Joke aside, they are now in a position to control all of their Jihadi neighbors with Egypt and Jordan have been muted for the most part.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/w...kes-syria.html